Should I ship a PvP 4X?
PvP + 4X
Of 26 developers who shipped a PvP 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $7.5k, ×5.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×1472 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 76 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.3k (exactly $1,258) |
|---|---|
| Median | $7.5k (exactly $7,485) |
| Top 25% | $48k (exactly $48,279) |
| Top 5% | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 26 |
| Released games | 121 |
| Announced | 76 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, 4X; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Wargame
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 50% positive over 47,922 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M 
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M 
Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M 
Dune: Spice Wars 2023 · $12M 
Sins of a Solar Empire II 2024 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
| | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
| | Northgard: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 54,478 85% | 1.6M | $57M (exactly $57,185,557) | Shiro Games |
| | Dune: Spice Wars | older | $34.99 | 11,561 79% | 347k | $12M (exactly $12,135,582) | Shiro Games |
| | Sins of a Solar Empire II | older | $49.99 | 7,147 83% | 214k | $11M (exactly $10,718,356) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | Galactic Civilizations III | older | $29.99 | 8,337 77% | 250k | $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) | Stardock Entertainment |
 | Airships: Conquer the Skies | older | $24.99 | 6,197 95% | 186k | $4.6M (exactly $4,645,891) | David Stark |
 | Age of Wonders: Planetfall | older | $29.99 | 4,758 80% | 143k | $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) | Triumph Studios |
 | Millennia | older | $39.99 | 2,976 67% | 89k | $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) | C Prompt Games |
 | Total War: PHARAOH | older | $29.99 | 3,622 63% | 109k | $3.3M (exactly $3,258,713) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY |
 | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
 | Solar Nations 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 609 85% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | Flomgus Games |
 | Pennon and Battle | $18.99 | 175 69% | 5.3k | $100k (exactly $99,697) | PB Studio | |
 | Territory Control 2 | · EA | $19.99 | 92 77% | 2.8k | $55k (exactly $55,172) | TFlippy, Knorrepot |
 | Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced | $9.99 | 174 95% | 5.2k | $52k (exactly $52,148) | Holistic Design, Inc. | |
 | Space Imperia 4X | $22.99 | 70 92% | 2.1k | $48k (exactly $48,279) | Breich Games | |
 | Sanguo's Ambition 4 :Three Kingdoms | $9.99 | 101 68% | 3.0k | $30k (exactly $30,270) | Youshen Interactive | |
 | Stardust Exile | $14.99 | 44 70% | 1.3k | $20k (exactly $19,787) | Apseren | |
 | Horn of the Warlord | $14.99 | 30 96% | 900 | $13k (exactly $13,491) | MagicKrol |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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