Should I ship an Action 4X?
4X + Action
Only 14 developers shipped an Action 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Quasimorph, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.4k, ×4.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×3601 the market median. Revenue is up 3760% on the market; 42 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $839 (exactly $839) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.4k (exactly $6,437) |
| Top 25% | $100k (exactly $99,550) |
| Top 5% | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 14 |
| Released games | 104 |
| Announced | 42 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3760% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Action; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Sandbox, Simulation
- Price point
- $10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 9,543 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $840. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M 
STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack 2010 · $22M 
ENDLESS Space™ 2 2017 · $21M 
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ 2014 · $17M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | X4: Foundations | older | $49.99 | 25,257 79% | 758k | $38M (exactly $37,877,923) | Egosoft |
| | STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack | older | $19.99 | 36,153 97% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,680,954) | Petroglyph |
| | ENDLESS Space™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 17,280 83% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,730,816) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ | older | $39.99 | 14,047 61% | 421k | $17M (exactly $16,852,186) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
 | Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition | older | $19.99 | 27,319 95% | 820k | $16M (exactly $16,383,204) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | Homeworld Remastered Collection | older | $34.99 | 11,977 87% | 359k | $13M (exactly $12,572,257) | Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac) |
 | Total War: ROME REMASTERED | older | $29.99 | 12,627 77% | 379k | $11M (exactly $11,360,512) | Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive |
 | Age of Wonders III | older | $29.99 | 7,020 81% | 211k | $6.3M (exactly $6,315,894) | Triumph Studios |
 | Master of Orion | older | $24.99 | 7,332 76% | 220k | $5.5M (exactly $5,496,800) | NGD Studios |
 | Quasimorph | $24.99 | 7,196 82% | 216k | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) | Magnum Scriptum | |
 | Duel Corp. | · EA | $24.99 | 1,251 71% | 38k | $938k (exactly $937,875) | Dreameffect Entertainment |
 | Huaxia: Warring States | · EA | $19.99 | 701 61% | 21k | $420k (exactly $420,390) | 秦川汉渚 |
 | Knights of the Crusades | $19.99 | 166 69% | 5.0k | $100k (exactly $99,550) | Reverie World Studios | |
 | Territory Control 2 | · EA | $19.99 | 92 77% | 2.8k | $55k (exactly $55,172) | TFlippy, Knorrepot |
 | Death row inmates on the run 2--The Resistance | $6.99 | 86 55% | 2.6k | $18k (exactly $18,034) | zzzgame | |
 | Square Wars | · EA | $4.99 | 43 79% | 1.3k | $6.4k (exactly $6,437) | Gökhan Birçek |
 | Astro Femdom | $11.99 | 3 0% | 90 | $1.1k (exactly $1,079) | Femdom studio | |
 | Femdom hotel | $10.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $989 (exactly $989) | Femdom studio | |
 | Infinite Empire | · EA | $14.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $899 (exactly $899) | Better Tools LLC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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