Should I ship a Tabletop 4X?
4X + Tabletop
Only 10 developers shipped a Tabletop 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Shields of Loyalty, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×1.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $83k, ×56 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $1.9k (exactly $1,948) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) |
| Top 25% | $10k (exactly $10,195) |
| Top 5% | $84k (exactly $83,958) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 10 |
| Released games | 26 |
| Announced | 11 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Tabletop
- Price point
- $12.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 9 games average 84% positive over 305 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Scythe: Digital Edition 2018 · $1.9M 
As Far As The Eye 2020 · $1.2M 
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition 2020 · $1.0M 
Nexus 5X 2024 · $398k 
WitchHand 2024 · $222k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Scythe: Digital Edition | older | $19.99 | 3,164 89% | 95k | $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) | The Knights of Unity |
| | As Far As The Eye | older | $24.99 | 1,640 73% | 49k | $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) | Unexpected |
| | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition | older | $19.99 | 1,705 71% | 51k | $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) | Dire Wolf |
| | Nexus 5X | older | $14.99 | 884 90% | 27k | $398k (exactly $397,535) | Whatboy Games |
| | WitchHand | older | $11.99 | 616 90% | 18k | $222k (exactly $221,575) | Jon Nielsen |
 | Shields of Loyalty | $19.99 | 140 77% | 4.2k | $84k (exactly $83,958) | Mosaic Mask Studio | |
 | Space Imperia 4X | $22.99 | 70 92% | 2.1k | $48k (exactly $48,279) | Breich Games | |
 | Areteion | $19.99 | 17 94% | 510 | $10k (exactly $10,195) | juxtapositioned | |
 | Square Wars | · EA | $4.99 | 43 79% | 1.3k | $6.4k (exactly $6,437) | Gökhan Birçek |
 | Rush for the Ages | older | $5.99 | 32 81% | 960 | $5.8k (exactly $5,750) | PUNKCAKE Delicieux |
 | Tree Kingdoms | $5.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) | Biscuit Factory Games | |
 | Haulin' Oats | $9.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $2.1k (exactly $2,098) | Gramps Games | |
 | LouveSystems' Realms | $12.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $1.9k (exactly $1,948) | LouveSystems | |
 | OrbHand | $2.99 | 8 100% | 240 | $718 (exactly $718) | Jesus Rugarcia | |
 | Imperial Wager: The Shattered Crown of Augustus | $19.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $600 (exactly $600) | Ke Zhou | |
 | WarBoard: Arena Empire | $0.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Velron Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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