Should I ship a PvE 4X?
4X + PvE
Only 19 developers shipped a PvE 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Stardust Exile, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×5.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $19k, ×13 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 65 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $718 (exactly $718) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,948) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $12,126) |
| Top 5% | $20k (exactly $19,787) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 65 |
| Announced | 65 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, PvE; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Economy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Stylized
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 284 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M 
Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M 
Dune: Spice Wars 2023 · $12M 
Sins of a Solar Empire II 2024 · $11M 
Galactic Civilizations III 2015 · $7.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
| | Northgard: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 54,478 85% | 1.6M | $57M (exactly $57,185,557) | Shiro Games |
| | Dune: Spice Wars | older | $34.99 | 11,561 79% | 347k | $12M (exactly $12,135,582) | Shiro Games |
| | Sins of a Solar Empire II | older | $49.99 | 7,147 83% | 214k | $11M (exactly $10,718,356) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
| | Galactic Civilizations III | older | $29.99 | 8,337 77% | 250k | $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) | Stardock Entertainment |
 | Star Trek: Infinite | older | $29.99 | 3,030 41% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) | Nimble Giant Entertainment |
 | Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes | older | $24.99 | 1,655 78% | 50k | $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) | Stardock Entertainment |
 | Medieval Kingdom Wars | older | $14.99 | 2,233 76% | 67k | $1.0M (exactly $1,004,180) | Reverie World Studios |
 | Airship: Kingdoms Adrift | older | $29.99 | 902 75% | 27k | $812k (exactly $811,529) | Revolution Industry |
 | Sins of a Solar Empire: Trinity® | older | $9.99 | 687 78% | 21k | $206k (exactly $205,894) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | Stardust Exile | $14.99 | 44 70% | 1.3k | $20k (exactly $19,787) | Apseren | |
 | Great Powers | $14.99 | 37 67% | 1.1k | $17k (exactly $16,639) | Flame-Dragons, Flame-Dragons | |
 | Hyper Empire | $11.99 | 46 78% | 1.4k | $17k (exactly $16,546) | Fair Weather Studios | |
 | Horn of the Warlord | $14.99 | 30 96% | 900 | $13k (exactly $13,491) | MagicKrol | |
 | Politon | $4.99 | 81 90% | 2.4k | $12k (exactly $12,126) | Pinq Games | |
 | Star Titans : War of the Galaxy | $14.99 | 14 92% | 420 | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) | Mediawork | |
 | Leaks In Space | · EA | $14.99 | 14 71% | 420 | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) | Frostech Game Studio |
 | Empire of Vice : Chicago | · EA | $16.99 | 9 77% | 270 | $4.6k (exactly $4,587) | Artifex Parvus |
 | Apoikia | · EA | $24.99 | 4 50% | 120 | $3.0k (exactly $2,999) | Charlie |
 | LouveSystems' Realms | $12.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $1.9k (exactly $1,948) | LouveSystems |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.