Should I ship a Hex Grid 4X?
4X + Hex Grid
Of 26 developers who shipped a Hex Grid 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $9.9k, ×6.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×976 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 60 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) |
|---|---|
| Median | $9.9k (exactly $9,893) |
| Top 25% | $48k (exactly $48,279) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 26 |
| Released games | 87 |
| Announced | 60 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Hex Grid; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Exploration
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 49% positive over 48,090 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M 
Sid Meier's Civilization® V 2010 · $115M 
Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M 
HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M 
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ 2014 · $17M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI | older | $59.99 | 276,113 86% | 8.3M | $497M (exactly $496,920,566) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization® V | older | $29.99 | 128,186 95% | 3.8M | $115M (exactly $115,328,944) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
| | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ | older | $39.99 | 14,047 61% | 421k | $17M (exactly $16,852,186) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ | older | $29.99 | 14,413 83% | 432k | $13M (exactly $12,967,376) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War | older | $39.99 | 8,148 82% | 244k | $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) | Proxy Studios |
 | Galactic Civilizations III | older | $29.99 | 8,337 77% | 250k | $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) | Stardock Entertainment |
 | Age of Wonders III | older | $29.99 | 7,020 81% | 211k | $6.3M (exactly $6,315,894) | Triumph Studios |
 | Age of Wonders: Planetfall | older | $29.99 | 4,758 80% | 143k | $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) | Triumph Studios |
 | Ascension | · EA | $19.99 | 2,437 60% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) | Element Game 微元游戏 |
 | Rogue Hex | $19.99 | 260 89% | 7.8k | $156k (exactly $155,922) | Topstitch Games | |
 | Yield! Fall of Rome | $19.99 | 219 69% | 6.6k | $131k (exactly $131,334) | Billionworlds | |
 | Imperial Ambitions | $19.99 | 101 81% | 3.0k | $61k (exactly $60,570) | aoiti | |
 | Folk Emerging | $24.99 | 73 86% | 2.2k | $55k (exactly $54,728) | Curious Dynamics | |
 | Space Imperia 4X | $22.99 | 70 92% | 2.1k | $48k (exactly $48,279) | Breich Games | |
 | Astro Protocol | $11.99 | 66 93% | 2.0k | $24k (exactly $23,740) | Null Vector Studios | |
 | Great Powers | $14.99 | 37 67% | 1.1k | $17k (exactly $16,639) | Flame-Dragons, Flame-Dragons | |
 | Wizard Warfare 2: Cephalopod Wars | $10.99 | 38 86% | 1.1k | $13k (exactly $12,529) | Psyanotek Limited |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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