Should I ship a Roguelite 4X?
4X + Roguelite
Only 8 developers shipped a Roguelite 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, After Inc: Revival, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×14 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.
Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $17k against a market of $1.5k. 27 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $6.4k (exactly $6,437) |
|---|---|
| Median | $17k (exactly $16,546) |
| Top 25% | $156k (exactly $155,922) |
| Top 5% | $799k (exactly $798,756) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 27 |
| Announced | 27 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Roguelite
- Price point
- $11.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 44,864 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $6.5k. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×14 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Against the Storm 2023 · $30M 
Conquest of Elysium 5 2021 · $1.7M 
Thea 2: The Shattering 2019 · $1.4M 
After Inc: Revival 2026 · $799k 
Legend Creatures(传奇生物) 2020 · $566k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
| | Conquest of Elysium 5 | older | $29.99 | 1,872 90% | 56k | $1.7M (exactly $1,684,238) | Illwinter Game Design |
| | Thea 2: The Shattering | older | $24.99 | 1,892 79% | 57k | $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) | MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio |
| | After Inc: Revival | $17.99 | 1,480 77% | 44k | $799k (exactly $798,756) | Ndemic Creations | |
| | Legend Creatures(传奇生物) | older | $4.99 | 3,780 89% | 113k | $566k (exactly $565,866) | HideChara |
 | Space Tyrant | older | $19.99 | 549 83% | 16k | $329k (exactly $329,235) | Blue Wizard Digital |
 | WitchHand | older | $11.99 | 616 90% | 18k | $222k (exactly $221,575) | Jon Nielsen |
 | Legendary Creatures 2 | older | $5.99 | 885 70% | 27k | $159k (exactly $159,034) | HideChara |
 | Rogue Hex | $19.99 | 260 89% | 7.8k | $156k (exactly $155,922) | Topstitch Games | |
 | Z Dawn | older | $9.99 | 259 72% | 7.8k | $78k (exactly $77,622) | GoldenGod Games |
 | Astro Protocol | $11.99 | 66 93% | 2.0k | $24k (exactly $23,740) | Null Vector Studios | |
 | Hyper Empire | $11.99 | 46 78% | 1.4k | $17k (exactly $16,546) | Fair Weather Studios | |
 | Epoch of Guardians | $11.99 | 32 81% | 960 | $12k (exactly $11,510) | 伊洛维游戏 | |
 | Square Wars | · EA | $4.99 | 43 79% | 1.3k | $6.4k (exactly $6,437) | Gökhan Birçek |
 | Commander Bug Wars | $9.99 | 18 83% | 540 | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) | GoldenGod Games | |
 | Shattered Lands (破碎之地) | $6.99 | 4 25% | 120 | $839 (exactly $839) | VoidStudio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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