Do I ship it?

Games › 4X › 4X + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics 4X?

4X + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 51 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Tactics 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×2143 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 96 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 96 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4X + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $49k → $398k → $193k → $4.2k → $2.1k → $1.3k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4X + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $50,974)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 158
Announced 96
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

4X
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
4X, Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Grand Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 72,030 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  2. + Colony SimPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxPoor odds36 devs · median $193k · 76 announced
  5. + DiplomacyPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  6. + SurvivalPoor odds21 devs · median $72k · 40 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds49 devs · median $61k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds21 devs · median $61k · 36 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds52 devs · median $34k · 112 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $34k · 21 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 63 pairs on the 4X page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era 2026 · EA · $23M Total War: ROME REMASTERED 2021 · $11M Songs of Conquest 2024 · $11M Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War 2018 · $9.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Songs of Conquest older $29.99 12,127 85% 364k $11M (exactly $10,910,662) Lavapotion
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
Hero's Hour older $17.99 4,643 79% 139k $2.5M (exactly $2,505,827) Benjamin "ThingOnItsOwn" Hauer
Dominions 6 - Rise of the Pantokrator older $44.99 1,686 90% 51k $2.3M (exactly $2,275,594) Illwinter Game Design
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Songs of Silence $29.99 2,367 79% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) Chimera Entertainment
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
Pennon and Battle $18.99 175 69% 5.3k $100k (exactly $99,697) PB Studio
TOHOTOPIA · EA $3.99 732 97% 22k $88k (exactly $87,620) Remilia Command
Shields of Loyalty $19.99 140 77% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mosaic Mask Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.