Should I ship a Combat 4X?
4X + Combat
Of 32 developers who shipped a Combat 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $1.4k. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 48 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.8k (exactly $3,835) |
| Top 25% | $24k (exactly $23,740) |
| Top 5% | $430k (exactly $430,057) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 32 |
| Released games | 75 |
| Announced | 48 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Exploration
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 66% positive over 3,790 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
Comparable games
Songs of Syx 2020 · EA · $6.6M 
Distant Worlds 2 2022 · $4.0M 
Ascension 2025 · EA · $1.5M 
Power & Revolution 2022 Edition 2022 · $1.2M 
Power & Revolution 2021 Edition 2021 · $943k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Songs of Syx | · EA older | $24.99 | 8,842 94% | 265k | $6.6M (exactly $6,628,847) | Gamatron AB |
| | Distant Worlds 2 | older | $49.99 | 2,653 72% | 80k | $4.0M (exactly $3,978,704) | CodeForce |
| | Ascension | · EA | $19.99 | 2,437 60% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) | Element Game 微元游戏 |
| | Power & Revolution 2022 Edition | older | $49.99 | 815 60% | 24k | $1.2M (exactly $1,222,256) | Eversim |
| | Power & Revolution 2021 Edition | older | $49.99 | 629 56% | 19k | $943k (exactly $943,311) | Eversim |
 | Ancient Warfare: The Han Dynasty | · EA older | $16.99 | 1,708 69% | 51k | $871k (exactly $870,568) | 不秋草游戏工作室(Bamboo Games) |
 | Elemental: Reforged | $29.99 | 478 73% | 14k | $430k (exactly $430,057) | Stardock Entertainment | |
 | Galactic Civilizations® II: Ultimate Edition | older | $9.99 | 955 80% | 29k | $286k (exactly $286,214) | Stardock Entertainment |
 | NationWar2:Chronicle | $16.99 | 378 78% | 11k | $193k (exactly $192,667) | Yiming | |
 | Dust Fleet | older | $19.99 | 193 76% | 5.8k | $116k (exactly $115,742) | Orbiting Disco |
 | Pennon and Battle | $18.99 | 175 69% | 5.3k | $100k (exactly $99,697) | PB Studio | |
 | Fall of an Empire | $29.99 | 80 67% | 2.4k | $72k (exactly $71,976) | JG Games | |
 | Space Imperia 4X | $22.99 | 70 92% | 2.1k | $48k (exactly $48,279) | Breich Games | |
 | Powerplay | · EA | $18.99 | 42 85% | 1.3k | $24k (exactly $23,927) | Frantic |
 | Astro Protocol | $11.99 | 66 93% | 2.0k | $24k (exactly $23,740) | Null Vector Studios | |
 | Stellar Reach | $19.99 | 34 79% | 1.0k | $20k (exactly $20,390) | Stelleas | |
 | Horn of the Warlord | $14.99 | 30 96% | 900 | $13k (exactly $13,491) | MagicKrol |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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