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Should I ship a Character Customization 4X?
4X + Character Customization
Only 9 developers shipped a Character Customization 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Eastern Era, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×4.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×1515 the market median. Revenue is up 64270% on the market; 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $2.0k (exactly $2,039) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) |
| Top 25% | $430k (exactly $430,057) |
| Top 5% | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 32 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $16.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 64270% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 4X
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Character Customization
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Character Customization
- Price point
- $16.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 147,509 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M 
Age of Wonders 4 2023 · $25M 
Age of Wonders: Planetfall 2019 · $4.3M 
Eastern Era 2026 · $2.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
| | Age of Wonders: Planetfall | older | $29.99 | 4,758 80% | 143k | $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) | Triumph Studios |
| | Eastern Era | $24.99 | 3,028 65% | 91k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) | FunYoo Games | |
 | Scythe: Digital Edition | older | $19.99 | 3,164 89% | 95k | $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) | The Knights of Unity |
 | Duel Corp. | · EA | $24.99 | 1,251 71% | 38k | $938k (exactly $937,875) | Dreameffect Entertainment |
 | Ragnorium | older | $24.99 | 586 57% | 18k | $439k (exactly $439,324) | Vitali Kirpu |
 | Elemental: Reforged | $29.99 | 478 73% | 14k | $430k (exactly $430,057) | Stardock Entertainment | |
 | Lawgivers II | · EA older | $24.99 | 565 73% | 17k | $424k (exactly $423,580) | Damian Bernardi |
 | Huaxia: Warring States | · EA | $19.99 | 701 61% | 21k | $420k (exactly $420,390) | 秦川汉渚 |
 | Star Titans : War of the Galaxy | $14.99 | 14 92% | 420 | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) | Mediawork | |
 | Ascendant Dawn | $15.99 | 13 84% | 390 | $6.2k (exactly $6,236) | Nikous Studio | |
 | Distant Flux: System Initializing | · EA | $16.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $2.0k (exactly $2,039) | Distant Flux Games, LLC |
 | Defense Legend 5: Survivor TD | $9.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) | Gcenter Game | |
 | The Little World | $5.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $180 (exactly $180) | KS Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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