Should I ship a 4X RTS?
4X + RTS
Of 33 developers who shipped a 4X RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $14k, ×9.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×2342 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 84 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.9k (exactly $1,948) |
|---|---|
| Median | $14k (exactly $13,941) |
| Top 25% | $72k (exactly $71,976) |
| Top 5% | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 33 |
| Released games | 166 |
| Announced | 84 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, RTS; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Base Building
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 32,182 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M 
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M 
Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
| | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | Northgard: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 54,478 85% | 1.6M | $57M (exactly $57,185,557) | Shiro Games |
 | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
 | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
 | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack | older | $19.99 | 36,153 97% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,680,954) | Petroglyph |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Ultimate General: American Revolution | $49.99 | 917 51% | 28k | $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225) | Game-Labs | |
 | Mandate Order | · EA | $19.99 | 1,110 81% | 33k | $666k (exactly $665,667) | Digital Sky |
 | Exogate Initiative | $24.99 | 691 75% | 21k | $518k (exactly $518,043) | Xeno Bits | |
 | Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown | $27.99 | 374 54% | 11k | $314k (exactly $314,048) | Zugalu Entertainment | |
 | Knights of the Crusades | $19.99 | 166 69% | 5.0k | $100k (exactly $99,550) | Reverie World Studios | |
 | SandTable War: Three Kingdoms | $9.99 | 301 84% | 9.0k | $90k (exactly $90,210) | 古玩工作室 | |
 | Fall of an Empire | $29.99 | 80 67% | 2.4k | $72k (exactly $71,976) | JG Games | |
 | Kingdom Ascension | $11.99 | 200 82% | 6.0k | $72k (exactly $71,940) | RainRingStudio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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