Games › 4X › 4X + Real-Time with Pause
Should I ship a Real-Time with Pause 4X?
4X + Real-Time with Pause
Only 8 developers shipped a Real-Time with Pause 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Terra Invicta, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $34k, ×23 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×7253 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $7.6k (exactly $7,555) |
|---|---|
| Median | $34k (exactly $33,728) |
| Top 25% | $274k (exactly $273,867) |
| Top 5% | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 42 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 4X
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Real-Time with Pause
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Real-Time with Pause
- Price point
- $14.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 372,871 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $7.6k. 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
Comparable games
Stellaris 2016 · $210M 
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Imperator: Rome 2019 · $23M 
Terra Invicta 2026 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Stellaris | older | $49.99 | 139,718 85% | 4.2M | $210M (exactly $209,535,085) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | Distant Worlds 2 | older | $49.99 | 2,653 72% | 80k | $4.0M (exactly $3,978,704) | CodeForce |
 | Rebel Inc: Escalation | older | $14.99 | 6,928 82% | 208k | $3.1M (exactly $3,115,522) | Ndemic Creations |
 | A Total War Saga: TROY | older | $19.99 | 3,324 71% | 100k | $2.0M (exactly $1,993,403) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | Industries of Titan | older | $29.99 | 1,553 61% | 47k | $1.4M (exactly $1,397,234) | Brace Yourself Games |
 | Distant Worlds: Universe | older | $29.99 | 1,417 71% | 43k | $1.3M (exactly $1,274,875) | Code Force |
 | Solar Nations 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 609 85% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | Flomgus Games |
 | Solar Wave | · EA | $17.99 | 80 75% | 2.4k | $43k (exactly $43,176) | SavGus Studio |
 | Trade Conquest | $14.99 | 75 69% | 2.3k | $34k (exactly $33,728) | GrandPaw Games | |
 | Earth of Oryn | · EA | $14.99 | 31 64% | 930 | $14k (exactly $13,941) | Earth of Oryn |
 | Samurai Conqueror | $13.99 | 18 100% | 540 | $7.6k (exactly $7,555) | Miura Production | |
 | Arinoa: Conquest | $14.99 | 16 87% | 480 | $7.2k (exactly $7,195) | Alternate | |
 | Imperial Wager: The Shattered Crown of Augustus | $19.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $600 (exactly $600) | Ke Zhou |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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