Should I ship an Exploration 4X?
4X + Exploration
Of 40 developers who shipped an Exploration 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 114 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×6.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×976 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 114 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.0k (exactly $2,998) |
|---|---|
| Median | $9.0k (exactly $8,991) |
| Top 25% | $61k (exactly $60,570) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 40 |
| Released games | 123 |
| Announced | 114 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 4X
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Exploration; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, Management
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 72% positive over 7,224 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 114 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Stellaris 2016 · $210M 
X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M 
Age of Wonders 4 2023 · $25M 
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ 2014 · $17M 
ENDLESS Legend™ 2014 · $13M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Stellaris | older | $49.99 | 139,718 85% | 4.2M | $210M (exactly $209,535,085) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | X4: Foundations | older | $49.99 | 25,257 79% | 758k | $38M (exactly $37,877,923) | Egosoft |
| | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ | older | $39.99 | 14,047 61% | 421k | $17M (exactly $16,852,186) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | ENDLESS Legend™ | older | $29.99 | 14,413 83% | 432k | $13M (exactly $12,967,376) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion | older | $19.99 | 10,243 93% | 307k | $6.1M (exactly $6,142,727) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | Star Trek: Infinite | older | $29.99 | 3,030 41% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) | Nimble Giant Entertainment |
 | Galactic Civilizations IV | older | $39.99 | 2,207 72% | 66k | $2.6M (exactly $2,647,738) | Stardock Entertainment |
 | Songs of Silence | $29.99 | 2,367 79% | 71k | $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) | Chimera Entertainment | |
 | ENDLESS Space™ - Definitive Edition | older | $9.99 | 6,626 79% | 199k | $2.0M (exactly $1,985,812) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Ascension | · EA | $19.99 | 2,437 60% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) | Element Game 微元游戏 |
 | Exogate Initiative | $24.99 | 691 75% | 21k | $518k (exactly $518,043) | Xeno Bits | |
 | Elemental: Reforged | $29.99 | 478 73% | 14k | $430k (exactly $430,057) | Stardock Entertainment | |
 | NationWar2:Chronicle | $16.99 | 378 78% | 11k | $193k (exactly $192,667) | Yiming | |
 | Rogue Hex | $19.99 | 260 89% | 7.8k | $156k (exactly $155,922) | Topstitch Games | |
 | Yield! Fall of Rome | $19.99 | 219 69% | 6.6k | $131k (exactly $131,334) | Billionworlds | |
 | Kingdom Ascension | $11.99 | 200 82% | 6.0k | $72k (exactly $71,940) | RainRingStudio | |
 | BioEden | $21.99 | 93 70% | 2.8k | $61k (exactly $61,352) | Broken Arms Games | |
 | Imperial Ambitions | $19.99 | 101 81% | 3.0k | $61k (exactly $60,570) | aoiti |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.