Should I ship a Sandbox 4X?
4X + Sandbox
Of 36 developers who shipped a Sandbox 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $190k, ×129 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×7253 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 76 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $9.0k (exactly $8,991) |
|---|---|
| Median | $193k (exactly $192,667) |
| Top 25% | $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) |
| Top 5% | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 36 |
| Released games | 136 |
| Announced | 76 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Sandbox; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Grand Strategy, Management
- Price point
- $19.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 49,891 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $9.0k. 2 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
Comparable games
Stellaris 2016 · $210M 
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M 
X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Stellaris | older | $49.99 | 139,718 85% | 4.2M | $210M (exactly $209,535,085) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
| | X4: Foundations | older | $49.99 | 25,257 79% | 758k | $38M (exactly $37,877,923) | Egosoft |
 | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
 | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
 | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
 | ENDLESS Space™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 17,280 83% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,730,816) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ 2 | · EA | $49.99 | 2,476 83% | 74k | $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Corsair Cove | $39.99 | 3,026 85% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) | Limbic Entertainment | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Whiskerwood | · EA | $29.99 | 3,221 92% | 97k | $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) | Minakata Dynamics |
 | Eastern Era | $24.99 | 3,028 65% | 91k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) | FunYoo Games | |
 | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
 | Nova Roma | · EA | $29.99 | 2,085 93% | 63k | $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) | Lion Shield |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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