Do I ship it?

Games › 4X › 4X + Action RTS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4X Action RTS?

4X + Action RTS

Only 10 developers shipped a 4X Action RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Knights of the Crusades, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×4.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $99k, ×66 the market median. Revenue is up 285% on the market; 23 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 285% on the market, 23 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4X + Action RTS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for 4X + Action RTS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,195)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,485)
Top 5% $100k (exactly $99,550)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 41
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 285% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

4X
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Action RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
4X, Action RTS
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 73% positive over 365 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $99k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  2. + Colony SimPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxPoor odds36 devs · median $193k · 76 announced
  5. + DiplomacyPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  6. + SurvivalPoor odds21 devs · median $72k · 40 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds49 devs · median $61k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds21 devs · median $61k · 36 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds52 devs · median $34k · 112 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $34k · 21 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 63 pairs on the 4X page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M Total Conflict: Resistance 2023 · EA · $4.6M The Battle of Polytopia 2020 · $2.1M Medieval Kingdom Wars 2019 · $1.0M Line War 2022 · $807k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Total Conflict: Resistance · EA older $29.99 5,089 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,578,573) Thunder Devs.
The Battle of Polytopia older $14.99 4,731 94% 142k $2.1M (exactly $2,127,531) Midjiwan AB
Medieval Kingdom Wars older $14.99 2,233 76% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,180) Reverie World Studios
Line War older $24.99 1,076 80% 32k $807k (exactly $806,677) Studio Centurion
Kingdom Wars 2: Definitive Edition older $9.99 348 66% 10k $104k (exactly $104,296) Reverie World Studios
Knights of the Crusades $19.99 166 69% 5.0k $100k (exactly $99,550) Reverie World Studios
Street Lords older $14.99 115 57% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) Studio HK
Byte Lynx older $9.99 74 97% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) Artful Games
Stardust Exile $14.99 44 70% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Apseren
OpenFront · EA $6.99 50 90% 1.5k $10k (exactly $10,485) OpenFront Inc, Evan Pellegrini
Periphery Online $4.99 50 72% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Aleksandr Nagaev
Arinoa: Conquest $14.99 16 87% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) Alternate
Grow Empire: Rome $3.99 28 64% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) Games Station
Valdrax Beyond the Rift · EA $12.99 6 83% 180 $2.3k (exactly $2,338) Ganea Ion
LouveSystems' Realms $12.99 5 100% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) LouveSystems
El Conquista $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Dexypher Games
Investigate $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 臻新

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.