Games › 4X › 4X + Base Building
Should I ship a Base Building 4X?
4X + Base Building
Of 48 developers who shipped a Base Building 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $24k, ×16 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2423 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 109 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.9k (exactly $3,896) |
|---|---|
| Median | $24k (exactly $23,740) |
| Top 25% | $799k (exactly $798,756) |
| Top 5% | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 48 |
| Released games | 144 |
| Announced | 109 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 4X
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Base Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Management, Building
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 66,860 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 5 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M 
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M 
Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M 
Against the Storm 2023 · $30M 
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
| | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
| | Northgard: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 54,478 85% | 1.6M | $57M (exactly $57,185,557) | Shiro Games |
| | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
| | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
 | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
 | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
 | Kingdoms and Castles | older | $19.99 | 30,311 93% | 909k | $18M (exactly $18,177,507) | Lion Shield, LLC |
 | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
 | Dune: Spice Wars | older | $34.99 | 11,561 79% | 347k | $12M (exactly $12,135,582) | Shiro Games |
 | Corsair Cove | $39.99 | 3,026 85% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) | Limbic Entertainment | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Whiskerwood | · EA | $29.99 | 3,221 92% | 97k | $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) | Minakata Dynamics |
 | Eastern Era | $24.99 | 3,028 65% | 91k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) | FunYoo Games | |
 | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
 | Nova Roma | · EA | $29.99 | 2,085 93% | 63k | $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) | Lion Shield |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | Ascension | · EA | $19.99 | 2,437 60% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) | Element Game 微元游戏 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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