Games › 4X › 4X + Tactical RPG
Should I ship a Tactical RPG 4X?
4X + Tactical RPG
Only 9 developers shipped a Tactical RPG 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Huaxia: Warring States, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.
Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $9.9k against a market of $1.5k. 24 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
|---|---|
| Median | $9.9k (exactly $9,893) |
| Top 25% | $100k (exactly $99,697) |
| Top 5% | $420k (exactly $420,390) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 37 |
| Announced | 24 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 4X
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Tactical RPG
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Tactical RPG
- Price point
- $11.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 156,088 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M 
Age of Wonders 4 2023 · $25M 
Songs of Conquest 2024 · $11M 
Starpoint Gemini Warlords 2017 · $3.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
| | Songs of Conquest | older | $29.99 | 12,127 85% | 364k | $11M (exactly $10,910,662) | Lavapotion |
| | Starpoint Gemini Warlords | older | $34.99 | 3,076 72% | 92k | $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) | Little Green Men Games |
 | Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes | older | $24.99 | 1,655 78% | 50k | $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) | Stardock Entertainment |
 | Master of Magic | older | $39.99 | 1,023 71% | 31k | $1.2M (exactly $1,227,293) | MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio |
 | Eador. Masters of the Broken World | older | $19.99 | 1,660 67% | 50k | $996k (exactly $995,502) | Snowbird Games |
 | Ancient Warfare: The Han Dynasty | · EA older | $16.99 | 1,708 69% | 51k | $871k (exactly $870,568) | 不秋草游戏工作室(Bamboo Games) |
 | Huaxia: Warring States | · EA | $19.99 | 701 61% | 21k | $420k (exactly $420,390) | 秦川汉渚 |
 | Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown | $27.99 | 374 54% | 11k | $314k (exactly $314,048) | Zugalu Entertainment | |
 | Pennon and Battle | $18.99 | 175 69% | 5.3k | $100k (exactly $99,697) | PB Studio | |
 | Hyper Empire | $11.99 | 46 78% | 1.4k | $17k (exactly $16,546) | Fair Weather Studios | |
 | Master of Luna | · EA | $14.99 | 22 95% | 660 | $9.9k (exactly $9,893) | Aleksandr Tiupin |
 | Defense Legend 5: Survivor TD | $9.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) | Gcenter Game | |
 | Dwarf Guild Mania | $6.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | Quarkblue | |
 | Dynastic Era | $1.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $60 (exactly $60) | LOONW | |
 | WarBoard: Arena Empire | $0.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Velron Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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