Do I ship it?

Games › 4X › 4X + Real Time Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real Time Tactics 4X?

4X + Real Time Tactics

Of 33 developers who shipped a Real Time Tactics 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.4k, ×4.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×918 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 59 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 59 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4X + Real Time Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $116k → $9.4k → $17k → $599 → $26k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4X + Real Time Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Median $6.4k (exactly $6,437)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,144)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 107
Announced 59
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

4X
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
4X, Real Time Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Grand Strategy, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $27.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $27.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 5,244 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $6.4k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  2. + Colony SimPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxPoor odds36 devs · median $193k · 76 announced
  5. + DiplomacyPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  6. + SurvivalPoor odds21 devs · median $72k · 40 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds49 devs · median $61k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds21 devs · median $61k · 36 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds52 devs · median $34k · 112 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $34k · 21 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 63 pairs on the 4X page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition 2006 · $16M Dune: Spice Wars 2023 · $12M Total War: ROME REMASTERED 2021 · $11M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition older $19.99 27,319 95% 820k $16M (exactly $16,383,204) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Dune: Spice Wars older $34.99 11,561 79% 347k $12M (exactly $12,135,582) Shiro Games
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Total Conflict: Resistance · EA older $29.99 5,089 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,578,573) Thunder Devs.
The Battle of Polytopia older $14.99 4,731 94% 142k $2.1M (exactly $2,127,531) Midjiwan AB
A Total War Saga: TROY older $19.99 3,324 71% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,993,403) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Ultimate General: American Revolution $49.99 917 51% 28k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225) Game-Labs
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown $27.99 374 54% 11k $314k (exactly $314,048) Zugalu Entertainment
Knights of the Crusades $19.99 166 69% 5.0k $100k (exactly $99,550) Reverie World Studios
SandTable War: Three Kingdoms $9.99 301 84% 9.0k $90k (exactly $90,210) 古玩工作室
Global Protocol: New World Order · EA $19.99 85 71% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Dorlion Interactive
Sanguo's Ambition 4 :Three Kingdoms $9.99 101 68% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Youshen Interactive
Myths and Legends $17.99 54 92% 1.6k $29k (exactly $29,144) Artificial Worlds
Riftborne · EA $7.99 108 91% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) Pitio Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.