Do I ship it?

Games › 4X › 4X + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation 4X?

4X + Procedural Generation

Of 37 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×2.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×1472 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 74 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 74 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4X + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $12k → $5.4k → $2.2k → $1.9k → $3.0k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4X + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,418)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,941)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 91
Announced 74
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

4X
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
4X, Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Grand Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 9,650 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  2. + Colony SimPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxPoor odds36 devs · median $193k · 76 announced
  5. + DiplomacyPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  6. + SurvivalPoor odds21 devs · median $72k · 40 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds49 devs · median $61k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds21 devs · median $61k · 36 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds52 devs · median $34k · 112 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $34k · 21 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 63 pairs on the 4X page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stellaris 2016 · $210M Galactic Civilizations III 2015 · $7.5M Quasimorph 2026 · $5.4M Distant Worlds 2 2022 · $4.0M Hero's Hour 2022 · $2.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Distant Worlds 2 older $49.99 2,653 72% 80k $4.0M (exactly $3,978,704) CodeForce
Hero's Hour older $17.99 4,643 79% 139k $2.5M (exactly $2,505,827) Benjamin "ThingOnItsOwn" Hauer
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Conquest of Elysium 5 older $29.99 1,872 90% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,684,238) Illwinter Game Design
Slipways older $16.99 2,233 93% 67k $1.1M (exactly $1,138,160) Beetlewing
Interstellar Space: Genesis older $29.99 712 83% 21k $641k (exactly $640,586) Praxis Games
Warsim: The Realm of Aslona older $9.99 2,005 96% 60k $601k (exactly $600,898) Huw Millward
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
Solar Wave · EA $17.99 80 75% 2.4k $43k (exactly $43,176) SavGus Studio
Sanguo's Ambition 4 :Three Kingdoms $9.99 101 68% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Youshen Interactive
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios
Stellar Reach $19.99 34 79% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) Stelleas
Stardust Exile $14.99 44 70% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Apseren
Warp to Sector One · EA $11.99 41 92% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) hextor.Games
Earth of Oryn · EA $14.99 31 64% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Earth of Oryn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.