Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground game?

Underground

Of 407 developers who shipped an Underground game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 701 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×525 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 701 games are announced against 255 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 701 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 407
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.4k → $1.2k → $1.0k → $1.8k → $2.5k → $898 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 407
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,780)
Top 5% $249k (exactly $249,217)
Developers, 2 yr 407
Released games 1,028
Announced 701
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$5.49 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.49.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 59,021 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 185 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 701 games are announced against 255 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Underground

77 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Automation + Underground Fair $7.4k 20 devs
  2. Turn-Based Combat + Underground Fair $4.2k 18 devs
  3. Incremental + Underground Fair $3.0k 27 devs
  4. Idler + Underground Fair $1.8k 30 devs
  5. Collectathon + Underground Fair $1.0k 27 devs
  6. Local Multiplayer + Underground Fair $807 10 devs
  7. Score Attack + Underground Fair $748 23 devs
  8. Base Building + Underground Poor odds $65k 12 devs
  9. Visual Novel + Underground Poor odds $4.9k 10 devs
  10. Open World + Underground Poor odds $4.8k 30 devs
  11. Souls-like + Underground Poor odds $4.8k 8 devs
  12. Stealth + Underground Poor odds $4.6k 26 devs
  13. Turn-Based Strategy + Underground Poor odds $4.5k 16 devs
  14. Character Customization + Underground Poor odds $4.3k 27 devs
  15. Management + Underground Poor odds $4.2k 39 devs
  16. Perma Death + Underground Poor odds $4.2k 28 devs
  17. Choose Your Own Adventure + Underground Poor odds $3.8k 17 devs
  18. Roguelite + Underground Poor odds $3.8k 50 devs
  19. Deckbuilding + Underground Poor odds $3.8k 14 devs
  20. Simulation + Underground Poor odds $3.3k 105 devs
  21. Building + Underground Poor odds $3.3k 23 devs
  22. Time Management + Underground Poor odds $3.3k 12 devs
  23. Metroidvania + Underground Poor odds $3.0k 14 devs
  24. Crafting + Underground Poor odds $3.0k 41 devs
  25. Economy + Underground Poor odds $3.0k 27 devs
  26. Loot + Underground Poor odds $2.9k 37 devs
  27. Online Co-Op + Underground Poor odds $2.8k 23 devs
  28. Roguelike + Underground Poor odds $2.7k 62 devs
  29. Co-op + Underground Poor odds $2.6k 22 devs
  30. Destruction + Underground Poor odds $2.6k 14 devs
  31. Resource Management + Underground Poor odds $2.2k 55 devs
  32. Sandbox + Underground Poor odds $2.2k 44 devs
  33. Survival Horror + Underground Poor odds $2.2k 38 devs
  34. RPG + Underground Poor odds $2.2k 67 devs
  35. Mining + Underground Poor odds $2.2k 90 devs
  36. Multiple Endings + Underground Poor odds $2.1k 48 devs
  37. Inventory Management + Underground Poor odds $2.1k 26 devs
  38. Immersive Sim + Underground Poor odds $1.9k 31 devs
  39. Turn-Based Tactics + Underground Poor odds $1.8k 19 devs
  40. Dungeon Crawler + Underground Poor odds $1.8k 74 devs
  41. Procedural Generation + Underground Poor odds $1.8k 66 devs
  42. Physics + Underground Poor odds $1.8k 53 devs
  43. 3D Platformer + Underground Poor odds $1.8k 31 devs
  44. Hidden Object + Underground Poor odds $1.8k 30 devs
  45. Action Roguelike + Underground Poor odds $1.5k 44 devs
  46. Hack and Slash + Underground Poor odds $1.5k 23 devs
  47. Exploration + Underground Poor odds $1.5k 198 devs
  48. Platformer + Underground Poor odds $1.5k 63 devs
  49. FPS + Underground Poor odds $1.4k 28 devs
  50. Combat + Underground Poor odds $1.3k 51 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BONELAB 2022 · $22M Watch Dogs®: Legion 2023 · $21M Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic 2025 · $13M White Knuckle 2025 · EA · $6.8M War for the Overworld 2015 · $5.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
THE LONGING older $14.99 6,977 92% 209k $3.1M (exactly $3,137,557) Studio Seufz
Mr. Prepper older $19.99 4,795 81% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,875,562) Rejected Games
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Until We Die older $16.99 4,221 62% 127k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,444) Pixeye Games
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
SubwaySim 2 $34.99 808 82% 24k $848k (exactly $848,158) Simuverse Interactive
Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out $7.99 3,490 85% 105k $837k (exactly $836,553) Digital Melody
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
Resident Evil 3 Nemesis (1999) $9.99 2,329 89% 70k $698k (exactly $698,001) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Dungeons of Blood and Dream $18.99 1,173 93% 35k $668k (exactly $668,258) Lori Vornoy
Resident Evil 2 (1998) $9.99 2,084 90% 63k $625k (exactly $624,575) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.