Do I ship it?

Games › Immersive Sim › Immersive Sim + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Underground

Of 31 developers who shipped an Underground Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×170 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 64 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 64 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $39k → $9.8k → $8.1k → $1.7k → $6.7k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,919)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,296)
Top 5% $255k (exactly $255,226)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 61
Announced 64
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 245% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 5,551 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Exit 8 2023 · $1.3M Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out 2025 · $837k Trolley Problem, Inc. 2022 · $417k Arx Fatalis 2007 · $366k Back in Service: a Metro Driver 2025 · EA · $255k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Exit 8 older $3.99 10,946 93% 328k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,236) KOTAKE CREATE
Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out $7.99 3,490 85% 105k $837k (exactly $836,553) Digital Melody
Trolley Problem, Inc. older $10.99 1,265 67% 38k $417k (exactly $417,070) ReadGraves
Arx Fatalis older $4.99 2,443 87% 73k $366k (exactly $365,717) Arkane Studios
Back in Service: a Metro Driver · EA $18.99 448 97% 13k $255k (exactly $255,226) Dominik Vojta
Ayahuasca older $12.99 356 81% 11k $139k (exactly $138,733) Small Studio by Mac Guff, Atlas V, a_BA… (Small Studio by Mac Guff, Atlas V, a_BAHN)
Cellar Keeper $4.99 892 89% 27k $134k (exactly $133,532) EgoTrampoline
Cralon $19.99 192 71% 5.8k $115k (exactly $115,142) Pithead Studio
Bloody Knuckles Street Boxing · EA older $14.99 210 52% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Luvseatshawty
goblinAmerica · EA $14.99 179 96% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Gil Lawson
Cave Crave VR $14.99 131 83% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) 3R Games S.A.
Runehaven $9.99 119 91% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,664) Cikoria Studio
Train Plus Japan Drive Western Japan Trains! Rapid Service Edition $64.99 14 78% 420 $27k (exactly $27,296) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
BACKROOMS ANOMALY $6.99 60 71% 1.8k $13k (exactly $12,582) liminal_games
ExoColony: Planet Survival $11.99 26 69% 780 $9.4k (exactly $9,352) Simplemole

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.