Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Underground

Of 27 developers who shipped an Underground Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $120. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 26 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 26 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $179 → $73k → $120 → $598 → $8.0k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $8.0k (exactly $7,969)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $133,160)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 49
Announced 26
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Mining, Adventure, Crafting
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 3,271 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tales From Off-Peak City Vol. 1 older $9.99 533 98% 16k $160k (exactly $159,740) Cosmo D
Cellar Keeper $4.99 892 89% 27k $134k (exactly $133,532) EgoTrampoline
Diggin $6.99 635 80% 19k $133k (exactly $133,160) Longshot Studio
Super Mining Mechs $4.99 841 86% 25k $126k (exactly $125,898) Delayed Victory
Miniland Adventure older $10.99 290 72% 8.7k $96k (exactly $95,613) Imilkowski Dev
Ad Fundum older $6.99 429 93% 13k $90k (exactly $89,961) Oldbut Gold
DigDigDrill $3.99 607 95% 18k $73k (exactly $72,658) Toorai
Chipmatic $11.99 158 65% 4.7k $57k (exactly $56,833) Molter
Train Plus Japan Drive Western Japan Trains! Rapid Service Edition $64.99 14 78% 420 $27k (exactly $27,296) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
Cozy Mining $6.99 38 76% 1.1k $8.0k (exactly $7,969) tatsumaki games
DigWorld $4.99 43 81% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,437) Edgar IX
MINERALS: Deep Core Mining $6.99 23 78% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) THINK & FEEL
Mining Miner · EA $4.99 20 95% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Skollheim, MTSU

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.