Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Combat game?

Combat + Underground

Of 51 developers who shipped an Underground Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×227 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 129 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 129 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $959 → $1.2k → $1.5k → $3.8k → $4.2k → $299 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,552)
Top 5% $143k (exactly $142,801)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 147
Announced 129
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, 2D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,769 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $7.5k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BONELAB 2022 · $22M HAAK 2022 · $1.7M Never Return 2021 · EA · $610k Frogmonster 2024 · $351k The Falconeer: Revolution Remaster 2020 · $249k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
HAAK older $17.99 3,149 89% 94k $1.7M (exactly $1,699,515) Blingame
Never Return · EA older $13.99 1,453 73% 44k $610k (exactly $609,824) YeMuNetWork
Frogmonster older $19.99 585 96% 18k $351k (exactly $350,824) Ben Jungwirth
The Falconeer: Revolution Remaster older $19.99 416 81% 12k $249k (exactly $249,475) Tomas Sala
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
Reach $29.99 244 66% 7.3k $220k (exactly $219,527) nDreams Elevation
Below the Stone · EA older $14.99 391 83% 12k $176k (exactly $175,833) Strollart
KINGDOM of the DEAD older $14.99 329 78% 9.9k $148k (exactly $147,951) DIRIGO GAMES
The Knight Girl And Dungeons $11.99 397 67% 12k $143k (exactly $142,801) こねこぼくし
Caput Mortum $11.99 355 94% 11k $128k (exactly $127,694) WildArts Games
Dverghold · EA $16.99 108 95% 3.2k $55k (exactly $55,048) Team Sorgarn
Antro $14.99 42 92% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Gatera Studio
UnderGirl: Submission Path $7.99 72 73% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,258) KadoDev
Tokyo Underground Killer $9.99 52 78% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Phoenix Game Productions
Dark Bone Prison $5.99 84 95% 2.5k $15k (exactly $15,095) Bunny Moon Shady
DarkRanger $6.99 51 66% 1.5k $11k (exactly $10,695) 铅笔龙, 偶尔不帅

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.