Do I ship it?

Games › Simulation › Simulation + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Simulation game?

Simulation + Underground

Of 105 developers who shipped an Underground Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 155 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×962 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 155 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 155 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 105
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $11k → $6.6k → $31k → $4.2k → $4.8k → $2.2k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 105
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,267)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,086)
Top 5% $604k (exactly $603,947)
Developers, 2 yr 105
Released games 185
Announced 155
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 34,765 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 155 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

War for the Overworld 2015 · $5.8M Mr. Prepper 2021 · $2.9M while True: learn() 2019 · $2.9M A Game About Digging A Hole™ 2025 · $2.8M Until We Die 2021 · $2.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
Mr. Prepper older $19.99 4,795 81% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,875,562) Rejected Games
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Until We Die older $16.99 4,221 62% 127k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,444) Pixeye Games
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
The Exit 8 older $3.99 10,946 93% 328k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,236) KOTAKE CREATE
KeeperRL older $19.99 1,677 83% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) Electric Succubi
SubwaySim 2 $34.99 808 82% 24k $848k (exactly $848,158) Simuverse Interactive
Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out $7.99 3,490 85% 105k $837k (exactly $836,553) Digital Melody
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.