Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground RPG?

RPG + Underground

Of 67 developers who shipped an Underground RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 126 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×250 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 126 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 126 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 67
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $1.4k → $2.9k → $449 → $3.8k → $4.9k → $896 (still earning) → $4.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 67
Bottom 30% $386 (exactly $386)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,157)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,480)
Top 5% $157k (exactly $157,053)
Developers, 2 yr 67
Released games 193
Announced 126
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dungeon Crawler, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 5,776 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 7 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 126 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Watch Dogs®: Legion 2023 · $21M THE LONGING 2020 · $3.1M Mr. Prepper 2021 · $2.9M HAAK 2022 · $1.7M Dungeons of Blood and Dream 2024 · $668k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
THE LONGING older $14.99 6,977 92% 209k $3.1M (exactly $3,137,557) Studio Seufz
Mr. Prepper older $19.99 4,795 81% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,875,562) Rejected Games
HAAK older $17.99 3,149 89% 94k $1.7M (exactly $1,699,515) Blingame
Dungeons of Blood and Dream $18.99 1,173 93% 35k $668k (exactly $668,258) Lori Vornoy
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
Dungeon 100 older $11.99 1,562 81% 47k $562k (exactly $561,851) 可布和常常诶
Meg's Monster older $14.99 1,173 96% 35k $527k (exactly $527,498) Odencat
Shroom and Gloom · EA $14.99 977 91% 29k $439k (exactly $439,357) Team Lazerbeam
Arx Fatalis older $4.99 2,443 87% 73k $366k (exactly $365,717) Arkane Studios
Goblin Dungeons $17.99 291 83% 8.7k $157k (exactly $157,053) Loolust
The Knight Girl And Dungeons $11.99 397 67% 12k $143k (exactly $142,801) こねこぼくし
Path of the Abyss $6.99 664 92% 20k $139k (exactly $139,241) Suzuki Suzuzou
Cralon $19.99 192 71% 5.8k $115k (exactly $115,142) Pithead Studio
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
Aground Zero $19.99 121 81% 3.6k $73k (exactly $72,564) Fancy Fish Games
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.