Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Underground
Should I ship an Underground Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Underground
Only 10 developers shipped an Underground Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Missile Command Delta, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×10 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $18k, ×39 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.9k (exactly $4,855) |
| Top 25% | $16k (exactly $15,584) |
| Top 5% | $19k (exactly $18,591) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 10 |
| Released games | 31 |
| Announced | 15 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Underground
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel
- Price point
- $7.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 9 games average 83% positive over 233 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
OBSCURA 2024 · EA · $204k 
マーダーミステリーパラドクス このひと夏の十五年 2023 · $149k 
MUSICUS! 2021 · $99k 
Lust Bunker [18+] 2023 · $39k 
Fleshcult 2020 · $28k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | OBSCURA | · EA older | $14.99 | 453 99% | 14k | $204k (exactly $203,714) | Rotten Raccoons |
| | マーダーミステリーパラドクス このひと夏の十五年 | older | $19.99 | 249 85% | 7.5k | $149k (exactly $149,325) | 213℉ |
| | MUSICUS! | older | $44.99 | 73 94% | 2.2k | $99k (exactly $98,528) | OVERDRIVE |
| | Lust Bunker [18+] | older | $9.99 | 130 66% | 3.9k | $39k (exactly $38,961) | BanzaiProject |
| | Fleshcult | older | $4.99 | 190 79% | 5.7k | $28k (exactly $28,443) | Oneirolith |
 | Three kingdoms story: Conussia | older | $6.99 | 128 50% | 3.8k | $27k (exactly $26,842) | kamti |
 | Missile Command Delta | $19.99 | 31 83% | 930 | $19k (exactly $18,591) | 13AM Games, Mighty Yell | |
 | Slasher U: An 18+ Horror Movie Dating Sim, Act 1 | older | $14.99 | 41 90% | 1.2k | $18k (exactly $18,438) | Andi Santagata |
 | I live under your house. | older | $1.99 | 305 80% | 9.2k | $18k (exactly $18,208) | SpoocleMacBoogle |
 | UnderGirl: Submission Path | $7.99 | 72 73% | 2.2k | $17k (exactly $17,258) | KadoDev | |
 | Tokyo Underground Killer | $9.99 | 52 78% | 1.6k | $16k (exactly $15,584) | Phoenix Game Productions | |
 | Thaw | $8.99 | 25 100% | 750 | $6.7k (exactly $6,742) | paochanz | |
 | The Land of Rest 1 | $8.99 | 18 100% | 540 | $4.9k (exactly $4,855) | 弓茶 | |
 | EmyLiveShow: Dungeon & Mistresses Tale | $7.99 | 18 83% | 540 | $4.3k (exactly $4,315) | Team Emily | |
 | Fugue of Delights | $5.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $539 (exactly $539) | Enygmage | |
 | Visual Novel: Requiem for Noodles | $0.99 | 13 92% | 390 | $386 (exactly $386) | Reanim Games | |
 | Apocalyptic Love | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | HypeTales21 | |
 | Veil: Project Conductor | $2.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Rebro Broni |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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