Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Sandbox?

Sandbox + Underground

Of 44 developers who shipped an Underground Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1112 the market median. Revenue is up 220% on the market; 86 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 220% on the market, 86 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $96k → $3.7k → $270 → $2.1k → $1.9k → $6.9k (still earning) → $960 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,093)
Top 5% $698k (exactly $698,342)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 83
Announced 86
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 220% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Mining, Adventure, Crafting
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 29,732 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
KeeperRL older $19.99 1,677 83% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) Electric Succubi
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
Lumencraft older $19.99 1,086 75% 33k $651k (exactly $651,274) 2Dynamic Games
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
Project P.I.T.T. $9.99 961 78% 29k $288k (exactly $288,012) Froke
Back in Service: a Metro Driver · EA $18.99 448 97% 13k $255k (exactly $255,226) Dominik Vojta
Deep Corp · EA $11.99 365 89% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) KishMish Games
Super Mining Mechs $4.99 841 86% 25k $126k (exactly $125,898) Delayed Victory
Mining Merchant $6.99 410 88% 12k $86k (exactly $85,977) Delayed Victory
Aground Zero $19.99 121 81% 3.6k $73k (exactly $72,564) Fancy Fish Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.