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Should I ship an Underground Sandbox?
Sandbox + Underground
Of 44 developers who shipped an Underground Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1112 the market median. Revenue is up 220% on the market; 86 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $898 (exactly $898) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,158) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $20,093) |
| Top 5% | $698k (exactly $698,342) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 44 |
| Released games | 83 |
| Announced | 86 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 220% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Underground
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Mining, Adventure, Crafting
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 29,732 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | BONELAB | older | $39.99 | 18,670 82% | 560k | $22M (exactly $22,398,399) | Stress Level Zero |
| | War for the Overworld | older | $29.99 | 6,495 85% | 195k | $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) | Brightrock Games |
| | while True: learn() | older | $12.99 | 7,350 91% | 221k | $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) | Luden.io |
| | A Game About Digging A Hole™ | $4.99 | 18,785 89% | 564k | $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) | DoubleBee | |
| | MineMogul | · EA | $14.99 | 4,330 96% | 130k | $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) | NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder) |
| | KeeperRL | older | $19.99 | 1,677 83% | 50k | $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) | Electric Succubi |
| | The Spotter: Dig or Die | $12.99 | 1,792 84% | 54k | $698k (exactly $698,342) | Puppyroar Games | |
| | Lumencraft | older | $19.99 | 1,086 75% | 33k | $651k (exactly $651,274) | 2Dynamic Games |
| | Meltopia | $6.99 | 1,679 85% | 50k | $352k (exactly $352,086) | Garden of Dreams | |
| | Project P.I.T.T. | $9.99 | 961 78% | 29k | $288k (exactly $288,012) | Froke | |
| | Back in Service: a Metro Driver | · EA | $18.99 | 448 97% | 13k | $255k (exactly $255,226) | Dominik Vojta |
| | Deep Corp | · EA | $11.99 | 365 89% | 11k | $131k (exactly $131,290) | KishMish Games |
| | Super Mining Mechs | $4.99 | 841 86% | 25k | $126k (exactly $125,898) | Delayed Victory | |
| | Mining Merchant | $6.99 | 410 88% | 12k | $86k (exactly $85,977) | Delayed Victory | |
| | Aground Zero | $19.99 | 121 81% | 3.6k | $73k (exactly $72,564) | Fancy Fish Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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