Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Underground

Of 28 developers who shipped an Underground Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×8.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×1271 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 47 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 47 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $980 → $28k → $3.6k → $0 → $4.2k → $3.0k → $4.8k (still earning) → $9.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,142)
Top 5% $604k (exactly $603,947)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 75
Announced 47
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Perma Death; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Procedural Generation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 16,939 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
Dungeon 100 older $11.99 1,562 81% 47k $562k (exactly $561,851) 可布和常常诶
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope
Ants Took My Eyeball older $12.99 248 93% 7.4k $97k (exactly $96,646) Bosmic Forge
Skeletal Avenger older $16.99 158 82% 4.7k $81k (exactly $80,533) 10tons Ltd
Footgun: Underground older $14.99 102 85% 3.1k $46k (exactly $45,869) Turtle Knight Games
Runehaven $9.99 119 91% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,664) Cikoria Studio
Demon Lord Reincarnation older $7.99 115 66% 3.5k $28k (exactly $27,566) Graverobber Foundation
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef $9.99 68 80% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) The Fine Arc
Rusty Rangers $14.99 27 88% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Fantastica!
The Candle $4.99 71 91% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) Candle Dev
OREBLAZE $4.99 64 92% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Ludiminal Games
Loot Dungeon $6.99 44 54% 1.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,227) Electric Kite

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.