Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Underground

Only 18 developers shipped an Underground Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Shroom and Gloom, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×8.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 29 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 29 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $2.2k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,695)
Top 5% $439k (exactly $439,357)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 41
Announced 29
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dungeon Crawler, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 1990's, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,409 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 29 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  6. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  8. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  9. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  10. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  12. + RhythmPoor odds10 devs · median $86k · 16 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shroom and Gloom · EA $14.99 977 91% 29k $439k (exactly $439,357) Team Lazerbeam
Deepest Chamber: Resurrection older $12.99 419 79% 13k $163k (exactly $163,284) Balcony Softworks
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Dverghold · EA $16.99 108 95% 3.2k $55k (exactly $55,048) Team Sorgarn
Demon Lord Reincarnation older $7.99 115 66% 3.5k $28k (exactly $27,566) Graverobber Foundation
Netherguild · EA older $12.49 73 93% 2.2k $27k (exactly $27,353) David Vinokurov
Sword of the Stars: The Pit 2 · EA older $14.99 53 73% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Kerberos Productions
Tower of Origin2-Worm's Nest older $13.99 49 67% 1.5k $21k (exactly $20,565) Villain Role
Dead Hand older $19.99 31 80% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) One Man Army Games
Labyrinth of Aetheria · EA $14.00 44 90% 1.3k $18k (exactly $18,480) Jimineko Games
DarkRanger $6.99 51 66% 1.5k $11k (exactly $10,695) 铅笔龙, 偶尔不帅
King’s Well $14.99 17 76% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Fire Brick Games
Queen Slayer $6.99 24 54% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Mantaray161
Tinker Shot $4.99 30 100% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) CodeRed
Turn Based Boxing: Tactics - Legends Edition $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) The Slanted Room
Dungeon & Poker $6.99 13 92% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) Vansonstudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.