Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Underground

Of 66 developers who shipped an Underground Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×1271 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 147 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 147 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $22k → $2.9k → $1.9k → $2.7k → $1.8k → $1.9k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,807)
Top 5% $604k (exactly $603,947)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 138
Announced 147
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Mining, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 38,203 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

White Knuckle 2025 · EA · $6.8M A Game About Digging A Hole™ 2025 · $2.8M KeeperRL 2024 · $1.0M Dungeons of Blood and Dream 2024 · $668k Lumencraft 2023 · $651k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
KeeperRL older $19.99 1,677 83% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) Electric Succubi
Dungeons of Blood and Dream $18.99 1,173 93% 35k $668k (exactly $668,258) Lori Vornoy
Lumencraft older $19.99 1,086 75% 33k $651k (exactly $651,274) 2Dynamic Games
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Super Motherload older $14.99 784 77% 24k $353k (exactly $352,565) XGen Studios
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
Mining Mechs older $2.99 2,577 89% 77k $231k (exactly $231,157) Delayed Victory
Mercury Fallen older $24.99 255 80% 7.7k $191k (exactly $191,174) Nitrous Butterfly
Super Mining Mechs $4.99 841 86% 25k $126k (exactly $125,898) Delayed Victory
Mining Merchant $6.99 410 88% 12k $86k (exactly $85,977) Delayed Victory
Idle Deepcore $6.99 365 85% 11k $77k (exactly $76,540) Bluehood Games
Runehaven $9.99 119 91% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,664) Cikoria Studio
Deep Among the Swarm $8.99 132 85% 4.0k $36k (exactly $35,600) Pebble Mountain Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.