Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Underground

Of 31 developers who shipped an Underground 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×832 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 32 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $537 → $599 → $479 → $479 → $9.3k → $3.8k → $180 (still earning) → $27k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $8.2k (exactly $8,234)
Top 5% $523k (exactly $522,644)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 72
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Platformer, Action, Parkour
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 15,596 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $8.2k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Last Train Outta' Wormtown $11.99 1,453 96% 44k $523k (exactly $522,644) Get(Color) Games
The Ball older $9.99 830 74% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Teotl Studios
Ikarus Parkour $12.99 195 81% 5.9k $76k (exactly $75,992) Vanja Aleksić
THE CANON OF BALLS $3.99 287 98% 8.6k $34k (exactly $34,354) Helios Monk
Train Plus Japan Drive Western Japan Trains! Rapid Service Edition $64.99 14 78% 420 $27k (exactly $27,296) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
The Long Gate older $19.99 39 79% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) David Shaw
Stretcher Together $4.99 116 47% 3.5k $17k (exactly $17,365) Goosix Games
WHITE CHOCOLATE $3.99 78 94% 2.3k $9.3k (exactly $9,337) Bakery of Games
cheapskate · EA $4.99 55 98% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Simple Dev Studio
GULLET $6.99 33 84% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) Joshua Allin
Orphans $16.99 9 55% 270 $4.6k (exactly $4,587) Infinity Gears Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.