Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Underground

Only 14 developers shipped an Underground Metroidvania in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Shadow Labyrinth, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×6.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×525 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 35 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 35 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $42k → $2.2k → $12k
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $41,822)
Top 5% $249k (exactly $249,217)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 40
Announced 35
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action-Adventure, 2D Platformer
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 920 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HAAK older $17.99 3,149 89% 94k $1.7M (exactly $1,699,515) Blingame
Frogmonster older $19.99 585 96% 18k $351k (exactly $350,824) Ben Jungwirth
Shadow Labyrinth $29.99 277 54% 8.3k $249k (exactly $249,217) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
The Siege and the Sandfox $14.99 180 64% 5.4k $81k (exactly $80,946) Cardboard Sword
PERFECT CELLS PROJECT older $9.99 226 79% 6.8k $68k (exactly $67,732) ShinshiMoustache
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Elmarion: the Lost Temple $14.99 93 67% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Fleon Games
Myastere -Ruins of Deazniff- older $19.99 26 57% 780 $16k (exactly $15,592) SUCCESS Corporation, Studio Saizensen C… (SUCCESS Corporation, Studio Saizensen Co., Ltd.)
Rusty Rangers $14.99 27 88% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Fantastica!
Thread older $10.99 24 83% 720 $7.9k (exactly $7,913) Medow
Quarion $0.99 166 94% 5.0k $4.9k (exactly $4,930) Zejoant
Souno's Curse $9.99 10 60% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Kiro Team
Plungeez $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Team Zeroth
Blast Hopper $5.99 12 66% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Heartscape Games
Nothing Beyond This Point $4.99 14 100% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Dieuwt

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.