Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Incremental game?

Incremental + Underground

Of 27 developers who shipped an Underground Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×6.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 35 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 35 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $358 → $5.5k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,807)
Top 5% $153k (exactly $152,993)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 50
Announced 35
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 1150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Mining, Automation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 3,581 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  12. + EconomyFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Project P.I.T.T. $9.99 961 78% 29k $288k (exactly $288,012) Froke
You Know The Drill $4.99 1,022 92% 31k $153k (exactly $152,993) ludokai
Diggin $6.99 635 80% 19k $133k (exactly $133,160) Longshot Studio
Kin and Quarry $9.99 400 75% 12k $120k (exactly $119,880) The Fox Knocks
Idle Deepcore $6.99 365 85% 11k $77k (exactly $76,540) Bluehood Games
Egyptian Senet older $9.99 200 81% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,940) Ezzat Studios
100 hidden frogs 2 older $0.99 327 77% 9.8k $9.7k (exactly $9,712) Anatoliy Loginovskikh
Loot Dungeon $6.99 44 54% 1.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,227) Electric Kite
Orebits $6.99 42 66% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) Upgraded Studio
Neko Dungeon | 喵酱迷城 | 喵醬迷城 | ねこダンジョン older $7.99 35 48% 1.1k $8.4k (exactly $8,390) TK Studio
Cozy Mining $6.99 38 76% 1.1k $8.0k (exactly $7,969) tatsumaki games
Peckers $4.99 37 97% 1.1k $5.5k (exactly $5,539) Humblebright Studio
Spell Alchemist $4.99 37 72% 1.1k $5.5k (exactly $5,539) hermurx

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.