Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Base Building game?

Base Building + Underground

Only 12 developers shipped an Underground Base Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MineMogul, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×10 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $65k, ×104 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $21k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.9M, ×3101 the market median. Revenue is up 495% on the market; 71 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 104.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 495% on the market, 71 announced, ×10 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $96k → $5.8k → $147k → $65k → $20k
Outcomes for Base Building + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $20k (exactly $20,093)
Median $65k (exactly $65,391)
Top 25% $407k (exactly $407,428)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 41
Announced 71
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 495% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 8,530 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $21k, median $65k, 1 in 4 over $400k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $21k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×10 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced
  12. + Job SimulatorPoor odds23 devs · median $53k · 19 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
Mr. Prepper older $19.99 4,795 81% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,875,562) Rejected Games
Until We Die older $16.99 4,221 62% 127k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,444) Pixeye Games
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
KeeperRL older $19.99 1,677 83% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) Electric Succubi
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
Lumencraft older $19.99 1,086 75% 33k $651k (exactly $651,274) 2Dynamic Games
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
STATIONflow older $17.99 479 85% 14k $259k (exactly $258,516) DMM GAMES
Project Wunderwaffe older $14.99 438 56% 13k $197k (exactly $196,969) Weasel Games
Dying Breed · EA $17.99 218 71% 6.5k $118k (exactly $117,655) Sarnayer
Aground Zero $19.99 121 81% 3.6k $73k (exactly $72,564) Fancy Fish Games
iDigging $2.99 729 69% 22k $65k (exactly $65,391) TWEN
Deep Among the Swarm $8.99 132 85% 4.0k $36k (exactly $35,600) Pebble Mountain Games
Underworld Overseer $19.99 52 90% 1.6k $31k (exactly $31,184) Myron Games
Colony 37 · EA $2.99 224 95% 6.7k $20k (exactly $20,093) Valen
ExoColony: Planet Survival $11.99 26 69% 780 $9.4k (exactly $9,352) Simplemole

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.