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Should I ship an Underground Multiple Endings game?
Multiple Endings + Underground
Of 48 developers who shipped an Underground Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×1315 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 79 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $13,646) |
| Top 5% | $625k (exactly $624,575) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 48 |
| Released games | 90 |
| Announced | 79 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Multiple Endings
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Underground
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Multiple Endings; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 20,596 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Multiple Endings with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + WuxiaFair
- + Level EditorFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + SuperheroFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + GamblingFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic | $39.99 | 10,874 86% | 326k | $13M (exactly $13,045,538) | Steel Wool Studios | |
| | THE LONGING | older | $14.99 | 6,977 92% | 209k | $3.1M (exactly $3,137,557) | Studio Seufz |
| | Resident Evil 3 Nemesis (1999) | $9.99 | 2,329 89% | 70k | $698k (exactly $698,001) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com | |
| | Dungeons of Blood and Dream | $18.99 | 1,173 93% | 35k | $668k (exactly $668,258) | Lori Vornoy | |
| | Paradise Lost | older | $14.99 | 1,469 67% | 44k | $661k (exactly $660,609) | PolyAmorous |
| | Resident Evil 2 (1998) | $9.99 | 2,084 90% | 63k | $625k (exactly $624,575) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com | |
| | Resident Evil (1996) | $9.99 | 1,602 90% | 48k | $480k (exactly $480,119) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com | |
| | Million Depth | $16.99 | 673 93% | 20k | $343k (exactly $343,028) | Cyber Space Biotope | |
| | Air Defender | · EA | $20.19 | 364 78% | 11k | $220k (exactly $220,475) | ROTOR3 |
| | OBSCURA | · EA older | $14.99 | 453 99% | 14k | $204k (exactly $203,714) | Rotten Raccoons |
| | Brno Transit | $8.99 | 589 85% | 18k | $159k (exactly $158,853) | Spytihněv | |
| | goblinAmerica | · EA | $14.99 | 179 96% | 5.4k | $80k (exactly $80,496) | Gil Lawson |
| | iDigging | $2.99 | 729 69% | 22k | $65k (exactly $65,391) | TWEN |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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