Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Underground

Only 14 developers shipped an Underground Deckbuilding in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Shroom and Gloom, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×7.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×925 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 25 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 25 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $163k → $2.7k → $150 (still earning) → $4.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,775)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,645)
Top 5% $439k (exactly $439,357)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 25
Announced 25
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 500% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Deckbuilding
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,781 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 25 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeon 100 older $11.99 1,562 81% 47k $562k (exactly $561,851) 可布和常常诶
Shroom and Gloom · EA $14.99 977 91% 29k $439k (exactly $439,357) Team Lazerbeam
Deepest Chamber: Resurrection older $12.99 419 79% 13k $163k (exactly $163,284) Balcony Softworks
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
時巡る宝石精霊 $15.99 35 94% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,790) 彩羽
Dungeon Divers older $4.99 103 78% 3.1k $15k (exactly $15,419) Wilson The Ball
Nexoria: Dungeon Rogue Heroes older $4.99 52 71% 1.6k $7.8k (exactly $7,784) TERNOX
King’s Well $14.99 17 76% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Fire Brick Games
Rift Miner $7.99 31 93% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) TIDERAFT
IGNISTONE older $4.49 43 93% 1.3k $5.8k (exactly $5,792) MONO ENTERTAINMENT
Tinker Shot $4.99 30 100% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) CodeRed
Sweep $6.99 18 77% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) On.Production
Dungeon & Poker $6.99 13 92% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) Vansonstudio
Pixel Three Kingdoms: Zombie Dungeon $9.99 3 33% 90 $899 (exactly $899) YYTGAME
Rogue Cave $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Rogue Gecko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.