Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Crafting game?

Crafting + Underground

Of 41 developers who shipped an Underground Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 98 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1112 the market median. Revenue is up 315% on the market; 98 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 315% on the market, 98 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.7k → $3.6k → $2.1k → $343k → $5.5k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $72,564)
Top 5% $698k (exactly $698,342)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 75
Announced 98
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 315% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Mining, Adventure, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 30,740 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $72k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 98 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mr. Prepper 2021 · $2.9M A Game About Digging A Hole™ 2025 · $2.8M MineMogul 2025 · EA · $1.9M The Spotter: Dig or Die 2026 · $698k Alaska Gold Fever 2026 · $489k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mr. Prepper older $19.99 4,795 81% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,875,562) Rejected Games
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope
Mining Mechs older $2.99 2,577 89% 77k $231k (exactly $231,157) Delayed Victory
Mercury Fallen older $24.99 255 80% 7.7k $191k (exactly $191,174) Nitrous Butterfly
Super Mining Mechs $4.99 841 86% 25k $126k (exactly $125,898) Delayed Victory
Mining Merchant $6.99 410 88% 12k $86k (exactly $85,977) Delayed Victory
Idle Deepcore $6.99 365 85% 11k $77k (exactly $76,540) Bluehood Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.