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Should I ship an Underground Physics game?
Physics + Underground
Of 53 developers who shipped an Underground Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1332 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 97 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,796) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $20,135) |
| Top 5% | $837k (exactly $836,553) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 53 |
| Released games | 115 |
| Announced | 97 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Underground
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Simulation
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 31,924 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
BONELAB 2022 · $22M 
A Game About Digging A Hole™ 2025 · $2.8M 
MineMogul 2025 · EA · $1.9M 
Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out 2025 · $837k 
Last Train Outta' Wormtown 2025 · $523k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | BONELAB | older | $39.99 | 18,670 82% | 560k | $22M (exactly $22,398,399) | Stress Level Zero |
| | A Game About Digging A Hole™ | $4.99 | 18,785 89% | 564k | $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) | DoubleBee | |
| | MineMogul | · EA | $14.99 | 4,330 96% | 130k | $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) | NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder) |
| | Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out | $7.99 | 3,490 85% | 105k | $837k (exactly $836,553) | Digital Melody | |
| | Last Train Outta' Wormtown | $11.99 | 1,453 96% | 44k | $523k (exactly $522,644) | Get(Color) Games | |
 | Meltopia | $6.99 | 1,679 85% | 50k | $352k (exactly $352,086) | Garden of Dreams | |
 | Project P.I.T.T. | $9.99 | 961 78% | 29k | $288k (exactly $288,012) | Froke | |
 | The Ball | older | $9.99 | 830 74% | 25k | $249k (exactly $248,751) | Teotl Studios |
 | Eye of the Temple | older | $19.99 | 392 92% | 12k | $235k (exactly $235,082) | Rune Skovbo Johansen |
 | Reach | $29.99 | 244 66% | 7.3k | $220k (exactly $219,527) | nDreams Elevation | |
 | iDigging | $2.99 | 729 69% | 22k | $65k (exactly $65,391) | TWEN | |
 | Cave Crave VR | $14.99 | 131 83% | 3.9k | $59k (exactly $58,911) | 3R Games S.A. | |
 | The Cave Diver | $9.99 | 122 75% | 3.7k | $37k (exactly $36,563) | Ovsko |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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