Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Loot game?

Loot + Underground

Of 37 developers who shipped an Underground Loot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×561 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 67 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 67 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.0k → $5.8k → $2.2k → $479 → $2.2k → $5.5k (still earning) → $960 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $960 (exactly $960)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 25% $7.4k (exactly $7,431)
Top 5% $352k (exactly $352,086)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 75
Announced 67
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 170% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Mining, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 22,470 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Never Return · EA older $13.99 1,453 73% 44k $610k (exactly $609,824) YeMuNetWork
Super Motherload older $14.99 784 77% 24k $353k (exactly $352,565) XGen Studios
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
Below the Stone · EA older $14.99 391 83% 12k $176k (exactly $175,833) Strollart
Ants Took My Eyeball older $12.99 248 93% 7.4k $97k (exactly $96,646) Bosmic Forge
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
DigDigDrill $3.99 607 95% 18k $73k (exactly $72,658) Toorai
Miner: Dig Deep older $6.99 242 91% 7.3k $51k (exactly $50,747) Substance Games
DUNGEON RAZE $2.99 458 85% 14k $41k (exactly $41,083) KOTARO YOSHIDA
Drill and Delve $8.99 108 87% 3.2k $29k (exactly $29,128) noOne
OREBLAZE $4.99 64 92% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Ludiminal Games
Loot Dungeon $6.99 44 54% 1.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,227) Electric Kite
Cozy Mining $6.99 38 76% 1.1k $8.0k (exactly $7,969) tatsumaki games
Rift Miner $7.99 31 93% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) TIDERAFT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.