Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Open World game?

Open World + Underground

Of 30 developers who shipped an Underground Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×326 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 65 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 65 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $4.9k → $718 → $4.0k → $2.7k (still earning) → $8.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,354)
Top 5% $489k (exactly $488,802)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 66
Announced 65
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Automation, Building
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 8,289 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Watch Dogs®: Legion 2023 · $21M MineMogul 2025 · EA · $1.9M Alaska Gold Fever 2026 · $489k Dirty Business 2026 · EA · $407k Arx Fatalis 2007 · $366k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
Arx Fatalis older $4.99 2,443 87% 73k $366k (exactly $365,717) Arkane Studios
The Falconeer: Revolution Remaster older $19.99 416 81% 12k $249k (exactly $249,475) Tomas Sala
Brno Transit $8.99 589 85% 18k $159k (exactly $158,853) Spytihněv
World of Subways 2 – Berlin Line 7 older $14.99 301 75% 9.0k $135k (exactly $135,360) TML-Studios
Super Mining Mechs $4.99 841 86% 25k $126k (exactly $125,898) Delayed Victory
Tunnet older $5.99 699 94% 21k $126k (exactly $125,610) puzzled_squid
Aground Zero $19.99 121 81% 3.6k $73k (exactly $72,564) Fancy Fish Games
Runehaven $9.99 119 91% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,664) Cikoria Studio
THE CANON OF BALLS $3.99 287 98% 8.6k $34k (exactly $34,354) Helios Monk
Drill and Delve $8.99 108 87% 3.2k $29k (exactly $29,128) noOne
Dig & Deal $9.99 29 75% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) ToYa Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.