Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Underground

Only 16 developers shipped an Underground Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Goblin Dungeons, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×250 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 24 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $215k → $11k → $807 (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $807 (exactly $807)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,491)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,790)
Top 5% $157k (exactly $157,053)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 32
Announced 24
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,167 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeon 100 older $11.99 1,562 81% 47k $562k (exactly $561,851) 可布和常常诶
Time Walker: Dark World older $4.99 1,434 85% 43k $215k (exactly $214,670) Heartfun
Deepest Chamber: Resurrection older $12.99 419 79% 13k $163k (exactly $163,284) Balcony Softworks
Goblin Dungeons $17.99 291 83% 8.7k $157k (exactly $157,053) Loolust
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
Tower of Origin2-Worm's Nest older $13.99 49 67% 1.5k $21k (exactly $20,565) Villain Role
Missile Command Delta $19.99 31 83% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) 13AM Games, Mighty Yell
時巡る宝石精霊 $15.99 35 94% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,790) 彩羽
Dungeon Divers older $4.99 103 78% 3.1k $15k (exactly $15,419) Wilson The Ball
The Commission 1920: Organized Crime Grand Strategy older $14.99 29 62% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) 302 Interactive
DarkRanger $6.99 51 66% 1.5k $11k (exactly $10,695) 铅笔龙, 偶尔不帅
King’s Well $14.99 17 76% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Fire Brick Games
Queen Slayer $6.99 24 54% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Mantaray161
Tinker Shot $4.99 30 100% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) CodeRed
Turn Based Boxing: Tactics - Legends Edition $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) The Slanted Room
Sweep $6.99 18 77% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) On.Production

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.