Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground FPS?

FPS + Underground

Of 28 developers who shipped an Underground FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $80k, ×54 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 45 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 45 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $59 → $2.6k → $1.5k → $11k → $5.3k → $1.4k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,552)
Top 5% $80k (exactly $80,496)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 78
Announced 45
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 98% positive over 13,840 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $7.5k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BONELAB 2022 · $22M White Knuckle 2025 · EA · $6.8M Frogmonster 2024 · $351k The Ball 2010 · $249k KINGDOM of the DEAD 2022 · $148k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Frogmonster older $19.99 585 96% 18k $351k (exactly $350,824) Ben Jungwirth
The Ball older $9.99 830 74% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Teotl Studios
KINGDOM of the DEAD older $14.99 329 78% 9.9k $148k (exactly $147,951) DIRIGO GAMES
goblinAmerica · EA $14.99 179 96% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Gil Lawson
ARKOS older $9.99 179 78% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,646) RetroSouls
Rescue Operation older $3.99 253 87% 7.6k $30k (exactly $30,284) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Ergastulum: Dungeon Nightmares III · EA older $7.99 75 72% 2.3k $18k (exactly $17,978) K Monkey
Tokyo Underground Killer $9.99 52 78% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Phoenix Game Productions
ARKOS 2 $12.99 34 91% 1.0k $13k (exactly $13,250) RetroSouls
The Candle $4.99 71 91% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) Candle Dev
Digging the Forgotten Cave $4.99 54 75% 1.6k $8.1k (exactly $8,084) Cavernauts
COLLAPSE COMPANY · EA $8.99 28 89% 840 $7.6k (exactly $7,552) VOLT-TECKS GAME STUDIO
The Backrooms: Rescue Expedition $9.99 21 33% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) {CRYTIME}
Dig For Riches $7.99 23 52% 690 $5.5k (exactly $5,513) OxygenStudio
Internal Extraction $7.99 22 77% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) LuisDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.