Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Economy game?

Economy + Underground

Of 27 developers who shipped an Underground Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1112 the market median. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 53 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 53 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $2.2k → $131k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $960 (exactly $960)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 25% $8.7k (exactly $8,691)
Top 5% $698k (exactly $698,342)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 40
Announced 53
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Mining, Simulation, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 24,116 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mr. Prepper older $19.99 4,795 81% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,875,562) Rejected Games
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
STATIONflow older $17.99 479 85% 14k $259k (exactly $258,516) DMM GAMES
Beneath the Mountain older $24.99 196 63% 5.9k $147k (exactly $146,941) Omnis Rector Studios
Deep Corp · EA $11.99 365 89% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) KishMish Games
The Commission 1920: Organized Crime Grand Strategy older $14.99 29 62% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) 302 Interactive
Orebits $6.99 42 66% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) Upgraded Studio
Dig & Deal $9.99 29 75% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) ToYa Games
Exipelago $24.99 9 66% 270 $6.7k (exactly $6,747) reiti.net
Metro Mini Market Simulator $3.99 49 69% 1.5k $5.9k (exactly $5,865) Altai Entertainment
Dig For Riches $7.99 23 52% 690 $5.5k (exactly $5,513) OxygenStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.