Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Underground

Only 19 developers shipped an Underground Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Shroom and Gloom, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $110; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×700 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 30 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $163k → $11k → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $105 (exactly $105)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,695)
Top 5% $439k (exactly $439,357)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 34
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, RPG, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,814 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $110, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $110. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shroom and Gloom · EA $14.99 977 91% 29k $439k (exactly $439,357) Team Lazerbeam
Time Walker: Dark World older $4.99 1,434 85% 43k $215k (exactly $214,670) Heartfun
Deepest Chamber: Resurrection older $12.99 419 79% 13k $163k (exactly $163,284) Balcony Softworks
Escort Simulator older $19.99 215 61% 6.5k $129k (exactly $128,935) Somavision Games
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
Netherguild · EA older $12.49 73 93% 2.2k $27k (exactly $27,353) David Vinokurov
Missile Command Delta $19.99 31 83% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) 13AM Games, Mighty Yell
Dead Hand older $19.99 31 80% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) One Man Army Games
時巡る宝石精霊 $15.99 35 94% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,790) 彩羽
The Commission 1920: Organized Crime Grand Strategy older $14.99 29 62% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) 302 Interactive
DarkRanger $6.99 51 66% 1.5k $11k (exactly $10,695) 铅笔龙, 偶尔不帅
King’s Well $14.99 17 76% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Fire Brick Games
Queen Slayer $6.99 24 54% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Mantaray161
Turn Based Boxing: Tactics - Legends Edition $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) The Slanted Room
Imperial Settlers: Imperial Miners $12.99 5 100% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) infoexpert games
Gnomes Garden: Black Stones $14.99 4 100% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) 8floor ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.