Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Roguelike?

Roguelike + Underground

Of 62 developers who shipped an Underground Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 112 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×925 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 112 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 112 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $11k → $2.9k → $2.4k → $3.8k → $1.7k → $4.8k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,480)
Top 5% $439k (exactly $439,357)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 134
Announced 112
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 20,349 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 112 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
KeeperRL older $19.99 1,677 83% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) Electric Succubi
Dungeons of Blood and Dream $18.99 1,173 93% 35k $668k (exactly $668,258) Lori Vornoy
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Dungeon 100 older $11.99 1,562 81% 47k $562k (exactly $561,851) 可布和常常诶
Shroom and Gloom · EA $14.99 977 91% 29k $439k (exactly $439,357) Team Lazerbeam
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope
Time Walker: Dark World older $4.99 1,434 85% 43k $215k (exactly $214,670) Heartfun
Below the Stone · EA older $14.99 391 83% 12k $176k (exactly $175,833) Strollart
Deepest Chamber: Resurrection older $12.99 419 79% 13k $163k (exactly $163,284) Balcony Softworks
Goblin Dungeons $17.99 291 83% 8.7k $157k (exactly $157,053) Loolust
You Know The Drill $4.99 1,022 92% 31k $153k (exactly $152,993) ludokai
Kin and Quarry $9.99 400 75% 12k $120k (exactly $119,880) The Fox Knocks
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
DUNGEON RAZE $2.99 458 85% 14k $41k (exactly $41,083) KOTARO YOSHIDA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.