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Should I ship an Underground Roguelike?
Roguelike + Underground
Of 62 developers who shipped an Underground Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 112 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×925 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 112 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,726) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $18,480) |
| Top 5% | $439k (exactly $439,357) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 62 |
| Released games | 134 |
| Announced | 112 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Roguelike
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Underground
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Roguelike; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, RPG, Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 20,349 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 112 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGFair
- + 6DOFFair
- + Grand StrategyFair
- + VampiresFair
- + DogsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SuperheroFair
- + IdlerFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | White Knuckle | · EA | $16.99 | 13,356 98% | 401k | $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) | Dark Machine Games |
| | KeeperRL | older | $19.99 | 1,677 83% | 50k | $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) | Electric Succubi |
| | Dungeons of Blood and Dream | $18.99 | 1,173 93% | 35k | $668k (exactly $668,258) | Lori Vornoy | |
| | Coal LLC | $14.99 | 1,343 92% | 40k | $604k (exactly $603,947) | Bye Bye Ocean | |
| | Dungeon 100 | older | $11.99 | 1,562 81% | 47k | $562k (exactly $561,851) | 可布和常常诶 |
| | Shroom and Gloom | · EA | $14.99 | 977 91% | 29k | $439k (exactly $439,357) | Team Lazerbeam |
| | Million Depth | $16.99 | 673 93% | 20k | $343k (exactly $343,028) | Cyber Space Biotope | |
| | Time Walker: Dark World | older | $4.99 | 1,434 85% | 43k | $215k (exactly $214,670) | Heartfun |
| | Below the Stone | · EA older | $14.99 | 391 83% | 12k | $176k (exactly $175,833) | Strollart |
| | Deepest Chamber: Resurrection | older | $12.99 | 419 79% | 13k | $163k (exactly $163,284) | Balcony Softworks |
| | Goblin Dungeons | $17.99 | 291 83% | 8.7k | $157k (exactly $157,053) | Loolust | |
| | You Know The Drill | $4.99 | 1,022 92% | 31k | $153k (exactly $152,993) | ludokai | |
| | Kin and Quarry | $9.99 | 400 75% | 12k | $120k (exactly $119,880) | The Fox Knocks | |
| | Backpack Dungeon | $3.99 | 656 87% | 20k | $79k (exactly $78,523) | 夜喵 | |
| | DUNGEON RAZE | $2.99 | 458 85% | 14k | $41k (exactly $41,083) | KOTARO YOSHIDA |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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