Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Idler?

Idler + Underground

Of 30 developers who shipped an Underground Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $600. Revenue is up 200% on the market; 31 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 31 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.9k → $8.0k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $8.0k (exactly $7,969)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $133,160)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 44
Announced 31
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Idler; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Mining, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,709 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
THE LONGING older $14.99 6,977 92% 209k $3.1M (exactly $3,137,557) Studio Seufz
You Know The Drill $4.99 1,022 92% 31k $153k (exactly $152,993) ludokai
Diggin $6.99 635 80% 19k $133k (exactly $133,160) Longshot Studio
Kin and Quarry $9.99 400 75% 12k $120k (exactly $119,880) The Fox Knocks
Idle Deepcore $6.99 365 85% 11k $77k (exactly $76,540) Bluehood Games
The Candle $4.99 71 91% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) Candle Dev
100 hidden frogs 2 older $0.99 327 77% 9.8k $9.7k (exactly $9,712) Anatoliy Loginovskikh
Loot Dungeon $6.99 44 54% 1.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,227) Electric Kite
Orebits $6.99 42 66% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) Upgraded Studio
Minimal Dungeon RPG older $5.99 45 46% 1.4k $8.1k (exactly $8,086) CapPlay Interactive Inc.
Cozy Mining $6.99 38 76% 1.1k $8.0k (exactly $7,969) tatsumaki games
Peckers $4.99 37 97% 1.1k $5.5k (exactly $5,539) Humblebright Studio
Sin Slayers: Meat & Greed $2.99 55 52% 1.7k $4.9k (exactly $4,934) Goonswarm Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.