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Should I ship an Underground Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Choose Your Own Adventure + Underground
Only 17 developers shipped an Underground Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Reach, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×8.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×462 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 22 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.8k (exactly $3,821) |
| Top 25% | $19k (exactly $18,591) |
| Top 5% | $220k (exactly $219,527) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 45 |
| Announced | 22 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
- Underground
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Exploration
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark Comedy, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 713 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 22 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + FMVFair
- + FlightFair
- + SportsFair
- + Word GameFair
- + MilitaryFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + 3D FighterLong shot
- + NavalPoor odds
Comparable games
Watch Dogs®: Legion 2023 · $21M 
THE LONGING 2020 · $3.1M 
Mining Mechs 2023 · $231k 
Reach 2025 · $220k 
OBSCURA 2024 · EA · $204k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Watch Dogs®: Legion | older | $59.99 | 11,891 56% | 357k | $21M (exactly $21,400,233) | Ubisoft Toronto |
| | THE LONGING | older | $14.99 | 6,977 92% | 209k | $3.1M (exactly $3,137,557) | Studio Seufz |
| | Mining Mechs | older | $2.99 | 2,577 89% | 77k | $231k (exactly $231,157) | Delayed Victory |
| | Reach | $29.99 | 244 66% | 7.3k | $220k (exactly $219,527) | nDreams Elevation | |
| | OBSCURA | · EA older | $14.99 | 453 99% | 14k | $204k (exactly $203,714) | Rotten Raccoons |
 | マーダーミステリーパラドクス このひと夏の十五年 | older | $19.99 | 249 85% | 7.5k | $149k (exactly $149,325) | 213℉ |
 | MUSICUS! | older | $44.99 | 73 94% | 2.2k | $99k (exactly $98,528) | OVERDRIVE |
 | Techno Banter | $17.99 | 113 91% | 3.4k | $61k (exactly $60,986) | Dexai Arts, Crunching Koalas | |
 | Lust Bunker [18+] | older | $9.99 | 130 66% | 3.9k | $39k (exactly $38,961) | BanzaiProject |
 | Rescue Operation | older | $3.99 | 253 87% | 7.6k | $30k (exactly $30,284) | Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich |
 | Underchoice | $7.99 | 113 72% | 3.4k | $27k (exactly $27,086) | TG Indie | |
 | TARO IS BACK | $15.00 | 44 84% | 1.3k | $20k (exactly $19,800) | BeforeHomeWorks | |
 | Missile Command Delta | $19.99 | 31 83% | 930 | $19k (exactly $18,591) | 13AM Games, Mighty Yell | |
 | Dig & Deal | $9.99 | 29 75% | 870 | $8.7k (exactly $8,691) | ToYa Games | |
 | Digging the Forgotten Cave | $4.99 | 54 75% | 1.6k | $8.1k (exactly $8,084) | Cavernauts | |
 | EmyLiveShow: Dungeon & Mistresses Tale | $7.99 | 18 83% | 540 | $4.3k (exactly $4,315) | Team Emily | |
 | Hardcore and Death | $1.99 | 64 84% | 1.9k | $3.8k (exactly $3,821) | ZERO5GAMES | |
 | Vaulted Valor | $14.99 | 3 33% | 90 | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) | Vast Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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