Do I ship it?

Games › Exploration › Exploration + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Exploration game?

Exploration + Underground

Of 198 developers who shipped an Underground Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 346 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×537 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 346 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 346 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 198
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.9k → $28k → $1.2k → $1.1k → $1.8k → $1.8k → $1.3k (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 198
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,742)
Top 5% $255k (exactly $255,226)
Developers, 2 yr 198
Released games 423
Announced 346
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 42,058 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 92 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 346 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Watch Dogs®: Legion 2023 · $21M Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic 2025 · $13M THE LONGING 2020 · $3.1M Mr. Prepper 2021 · $2.9M A Game About Digging A Hole™ 2025 · $2.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
THE LONGING older $14.99 6,977 92% 209k $3.1M (exactly $3,137,557) Studio Seufz
Mr. Prepper older $19.99 4,795 81% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,875,562) Rejected Games
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
HAAK older $17.99 3,149 89% 94k $1.7M (exactly $1,699,515) Blingame
The Exit 8 older $3.99 10,946 93% 328k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,236) KOTAKE CREATE
Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out $7.99 3,490 85% 105k $837k (exactly $836,553) Digital Melody
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
Scanner Sombre older $6.99 3,172 91% 95k $665k (exactly $665,168) Introversion Software
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Amenti $6.99 2,184 80% 66k $458k (exactly $457,985) Darkphobia Games
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope
Back in Service: a Metro Driver · EA $18.99 448 97% 13k $255k (exactly $255,226) Dominik Vojta

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.