Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Roguelite?

Roguelite + Underground

Of 50 developers who shipped an Underground Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×7.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×722 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 100 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 100 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $176k → $1.2k → $1.1k → $3.8k → $5.7k → $2.2k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,775)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,695)
Top 5% $343k (exactly $343,028)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 107
Announced 100
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 4,700 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lumencraft older $19.99 1,086 75% 33k $651k (exactly $651,274) 2Dynamic Games
Never Return · EA older $13.99 1,453 73% 44k $610k (exactly $609,824) YeMuNetWork
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Shroom and Gloom · EA $14.99 977 91% 29k $439k (exactly $439,357) Team Lazerbeam
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope
Time Walker: Dark World older $4.99 1,434 85% 43k $215k (exactly $214,670) Heartfun
Below the Stone · EA older $14.99 391 83% 12k $176k (exactly $175,833) Strollart
Goblin Dungeons $17.99 291 83% 8.7k $157k (exactly $157,053) Loolust
Kin and Quarry $9.99 400 75% 12k $120k (exactly $119,880) The Fox Knocks
Ants Took My Eyeball older $12.99 248 93% 7.4k $97k (exactly $96,646) Bosmic Forge
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
Deep Among the Swarm $8.99 132 85% 4.0k $36k (exactly $35,600) Pebble Mountain Games
Gem Miner TD $12.99 72 97% 2.2k $28k (exactly $28,058) iFeral Games
Soulbind: Tales Of The Underworld $7.99 88 73% 2.6k $21k (exactly $21,094) Rubedo Games
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef $9.99 68 80% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) The Fine Arc

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.