Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir game?

Noir

Of 478 developers who shipped a Noir game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 900 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×710 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 900 games are announced against 301 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 900 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 478
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.1k → $1.9k → $1.5k → $2.6k → $1.6k → $2.5k → $1.2k (still earning) → $420 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 478
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,058)
Top 5% $337k (exactly $337,275)
Developers, 2 yr 478
Released games 1,384
Announced 900
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 72,464 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 228 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 900 games are announced against 301 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Noir

77 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Dating Sim + Noir Fair $10k 16 devs
  2. Bullet Time + Noir Fair $3.1k 11 devs
  3. Logic + Noir Fair $2.7k 42 devs
  4. Collectathon + Noir Fair $1.8k 10 devs
  5. Walking Simulator + Noir Fair $1.5k 44 devs
  6. Incremental + Noir Fair $1.2k 29 devs
  7. Hidden Object + Noir Fair $959 50 devs
  8. Card Battler + Noir Poor odds $12k 16 devs
  9. FPS + Noir Poor odds $7.6k 18 devs
  10. Open World + Noir Poor odds $6.6k 19 devs
  11. Time Manipulation + Noir Poor odds $6.5k 9 devs
  12. Investigation + Noir Poor odds $5.5k 112 devs
  13. Tactical RPG + Noir Poor odds $4.5k 12 devs
  14. Stealth + Noir Poor odds $4.2k 32 devs
  15. Tactical + Noir Poor odds $4.2k 16 devs
  16. Co-op + Noir Poor odds $4.2k 11 devs
  17. Turn-Based Combat + Noir Poor odds $3.6k 15 devs
  18. Strategy RPG + Noir Poor odds $3.0k 17 devs
  19. Turn-Based Tactics + Noir Poor odds $3.0k 17 devs
  20. RPG + Noir Poor odds $2.7k 95 devs
  21. Turn-Based Strategy + Noir Poor odds $2.7k 23 devs
  22. Action RPG + Noir Poor odds $2.6k 27 devs
  23. Survival Horror + Noir Poor odds $2.5k 27 devs
  24. Sandbox + Noir Poor odds $2.5k 15 devs
  25. Interactive Fiction + Noir Poor odds $2.4k 115 devs
  26. Immersive Sim + Noir Poor odds $2.4k 54 devs
  27. Survival + Noir Poor odds $2.4k 22 devs
  28. Shooter + Noir Poor odds $2.2k 39 devs
  29. Procedural Generation + Noir Poor odds $2.2k 22 devs
  30. Platformer + Noir Poor odds $2.2k 19 devs
  31. Simulation + Noir Poor odds $2.2k 108 devs
  32. Choose Your Own Adventure + Noir Poor odds $2.1k 81 devs
  33. Board Game + Noir Poor odds $2.0k 9 devs
  34. Resource Management + Noir Poor odds $1.9k 18 devs
  35. PvP + Noir Poor odds $1.9k 16 devs
  36. Adventure + Noir Poor odds $1.7k 260 devs
  37. Point & Click + Noir Poor odds $1.7k 95 devs
  38. Word Game + Noir Poor odds $1.7k 19 devs
  39. Visual Novel + Noir Poor odds $1.6k 120 devs
  40. Exploration + Noir Poor odds $1.5k 133 devs
  41. Puzzle + Noir Poor odds $1.4k 158 devs
  42. Strategy + Noir Poor odds $1.4k 89 devs
  43. Dynamic Narration + Noir Poor odds $1.4k 16 devs
  44. 3D Platformer + Noir Poor odds $1.4k 9 devs
  45. PvE + Noir Poor odds $1.3k 23 devs
  46. Choices Matter + Noir Poor odds $1.2k 100 devs
  47. Multiple Endings + Noir Poor odds $1.2k 94 devs
  48. Character Customization + Noir Poor odds $1.2k 11 devs
  49. Combat + Noir Poor odds $1.1k 46 devs
  50. Action + Noir Poor odds $900 129 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M Mafia: Definitive Edition 2020 · $107M Max Payne 3 2012 · $33M Katana ZERO 2019 · $30M Mafia II: Definitive Edition 2020 · $26M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut older $39.99 118,124 92% 3.5M $142M (exactly $141,713,363) ZA/UM
Mafia: Definitive Edition older $39.99 88,955 86% 2.7M $107M (exactly $106,719,314) Hangar 13
Max Payne 3 older $19.99 55,150 86% 1.7M $33M (exactly $33,073,455) Rockstar Studios
Katana ZERO older $14.99 66,341 97% 2.0M $30M (exactly $29,833,548) Askiisoft
Mafia II: Definitive Edition older $29.99 28,886 74% 867k $26M (exactly $25,988,734) Hangar 13, D3T
Return of the Obra Dinn older $19.99 32,309 96% 969k $19M (exactly $19,375,707) Lucas Pope
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Skullgirls 2nd Encore older $24.99 23,071 88% 692k $17M (exactly $17,296,329) Hidden Variable Studios
The Wolf Among Us older $14.99 32,494 97% 975k $15M (exactly $14,612,552) Telltale
MOUSE: P.I. For Hire $29.99 14,604 93% 438k $13M (exactly $13,139,219) Fumi Games
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
HENPRI $24.99 3,903 96% 117k $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) Qruppo
The Drifter $19.99 4,735 97% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd
Psycho Patrol R · EA $39.99 2,090 88% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) Consumer Softproducts
Hollywood Animal · EA $19.99 3,845 73% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) Weappy Wholesome
The Séance of Blake Manor $19.99 3,683 95% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) Spooky Doorway
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.