Games › Multiple Endings › Multiple Endings + Noir
Should I ship a Noir Multiple Endings game?
Multiple Endings + Noir
Of 94 developers who shipped a Noir Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 225 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×268 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 225 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $330 (exactly $330) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
| Top 25% | $6.0k (exactly $5,998) |
| Top 5% | $127k (exactly $127,334) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 94 |
| Released games | 248 |
| Announced | 225 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Multiple Endings
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Multiple Endings; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Adventure, Choose Your Own Adventure
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 6,177 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $330. 9 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 225 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Multiple Endings with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + WuxiaFair
- + Level EditorFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + SuperheroFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + GamblingFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
Comparable games
Return of the Obra Dinn 2018 · $19M 
The Wolf Among Us 2013 · $15M 
Word Game 2022 · $6.2M 
Nobody Wants to Die 2024 · $4.4M 
Blacksad: Under the Skin 2019 · $3.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Return of the Obra Dinn | older | $19.99 | 32,309 96% | 969k | $19M (exactly $19,375,707) | Lucas Pope |
| | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
| | Word Game | older | $34.99 | 5,930 93% | 178k | $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) | Team9 |
| | Nobody Wants to Die | older | $24.99 | 5,818 83% | 175k | $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) | Critical Hit Games |
| | Blacksad: Under the Skin | older | $19.99 | 5,356 83% | 161k | $3.2M (exactly $3,211,993) | Pendulo Studios, YS Interactive |
 | Hollywood Animal | · EA | $19.99 | 3,845 73% | 115k | $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) | Weappy Wholesome |
 | Class of '09: The Re-Up | older | $14.99 | 4,496 97% | 135k | $2.0M (exactly $2,021,851) | SBN3 |
 | BUSTAFELLOWS | older | $39.99 | 968 86% | 29k | $1.2M (exactly $1,161,310) | NIPPON CULTURAL BROADCASTING EXTEND INC. |
 | The Lamplighters League | older | $49.99 | 726 71% | 22k | $1.1M (exactly $1,088,782) | Harebrained Schemes |
 | Unavowed | older | $14.99 | 2,309 95% | 69k | $1.0M (exactly $1,038,357) | Wadjet Eye Games |
 | The Posthumous Investigation | $19.99 | 554 94% | 17k | $332k (exactly $332,234) | Mother Gaia Studio | |
 | Withering Realms | · EA | $19.99 | 317 95% | 9.5k | $190k (exactly $190,105) | Moonless Formless |
 | Lightracer: For Judge | $9.99 | 462 92% | 14k | $138k (exactly $138,461) | Smartmelon Games | |
 | Harem Fantasy | $11.99 | 354 87% | 11k | $127k (exactly $127,334) | Sweet Buns Games | |
 | Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE | $29.99 | 108 94% | 3.2k | $97k (exactly $97,168) | NITRO PLUS, NITRO ORIGIN | |
 | Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator | $12.99 | 208 59% | 6.2k | $81k (exactly $81,058) | Zeitglas | |
 | Lover's Enigma | $11.99 | 98 87% | 2.9k | $35k (exactly $35,251) | FallenCranberry Studio | |
 | Omen Exitio: Hunger | $9.99 | 117 88% | 3.5k | $35k (exactly $35,065) | Tiny Bull Studios | |
 | The Allure Of Wanton Cove | $9.99 | 114 78% | 3.4k | $34k (exactly $34,166) | Ktulhu Solutions, Aftermath |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.